ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Thursday, February 8, 1996 TAG: 9602080052
SECTION: EDITORIAL PAGE: A-15 EDITION: METRO
COLUMN: Ray L. Garland
SOURCE: RAY L. GARLAND
AN ACTUAL election is worth buckets of horseradish. That just happened in Oregon and will shortly occur in Iowa and New Hampshire, doing much to clear the sinuses of learned commentators.
The special election in Oregon to fill the seat left vacant by the disgraced Sen. Robert Packwood told a very interesting story. Democratic Rep. Ron Wyden defeated a GOP state senator by 19,195 votes out of almost 1.2 million cast. But when the Republican vote is added to those received by minor candidates of the American Party and the Libertarian Party, it's fair to say those expressing conservative views won a bare majority.
And this in Oregon, a state President Bill Clinton carried comfortably in 1992, and where Democrats held four out of five House seats in 1994. Wyden himself was re-elected in 1994 with 74 percent of the vote. By all logic, including the fact the election was conducted entirely by mail over three weeks, Wyden should have had an easy time of it. But claiming 48 percent of the vote in a basically liberal state was hardly that.
This tells me that even in the midst of Republican doldrums and Clinton's alleged rebirth, real voters - as distinct from people shooting the breeze with pollsters over the phone - remain leery of the Democratic Party.
That brings us to the Republican Party and its four serious contenders for the presidency: Senate Majority Leader Robert Dole, publisher Steve Forbes, Texas Sen. Phil Gramm and that exponent of angry populism, pundit Pat Buchanan.
The sudden emergence of the hitherto unknown Forbes shows the awful volatility of American politics even at a time when much that seemed to be going wrong is going right. Who would have dared predict, even two years ago, that a Democratic president who saw himself as heir to Franklin Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson would stand before Congress, as Clinton did the other day, proclaiming, "The era of big government is over?"
The press, ever seeking to explain the appeal of candidates in terms of issues, presents Forbes as rising on the strength of his flat tax. But however Forbes does, one thing is certain, his version (almost every GOP candidate has one) won't be enacted. The American people may be sold many nostrums, but one they won't buy is that wages should be taxed while dividends, capital gains and interest aren't.
But this quibble has little to do with Forbes becoming, virtually overnight, a major player. Nor is it simply a matter of his personal wealth being thrown upon the scales. Others with money have gone nowhere. And past overnight sensations such as John Anderson, Gary Hart and Paul Tsongas didn't have those millions to spend and still found their day in the media sun.
There is something in Forbes' personality that has clicked. In a field crowded with people who've seldom strayed far from a government payroll, it's refreshing to find someone who steers his own boat in the private sector - albeit one handsomely outfitted by his father and grandfather before him.
You can also discern a larger issue behind the flat tax. While other candidates, even Clinton, speak of an indefinite era of painful choices, Forbes touts economic growth as the way out. Not just the 2 or 3 percent a year we've seen lately, but getting back to the robust growth America once took for granted. This kind of growth, he says, will make the deficit moot and allow the government to carry programs like Medicare, now seen as doomed to persistent pruning.
While I've never seen the federal income tax as particularly complicated for the vast majority of taxpayers, there's logic in Forbes' insistence that the real issue is how best to generate growth.
For what little it's worth, I think the best and quickest route lies in reforming or even eliminating the corporate income tax. Here's where you find the vast thicket of rulings and regulations that occupy some of the best minds in American business.
Why not a corporate flat tax, say 5 percent of gross receipts? Now, General Motors filing its tax return on a post card would really be something! But you can imagine the fun Democrats would have with that, so it's a nonstarter. Still, corporations don't pay taxes; their customers, employees and shareholders pay them. They take the form of higher prices, lower wages, smaller dividends and less investment.
If Dole prevails, it can be said Forbes did him a great favor. Until Forbes came along, the Republican race was competing with Prozac as the national soporific. Now, a Dole victory will have some real meat on its bones.
While Republican primary voters want Reagan II, they won't find him on the ballot. Even if they decide Dole can't beat Clinton, they should still see him as the safer, saner choice. If you can't win the presidency, you should at least try to hold Congress. It's hard to see Dole, the consummate legislator, doing anything to risk that.
In its long history, the Republican Party has found no steadier soldier than the senator from Kansas. There is something right in giving this able man - the last survivor in national politics to shed blood in World War II - his last chance to lead. After four years of flabby idealism, and four years of ideological confusion before that, the country may be ready for a realist.
There is reason to doubt Dole would be a great president, or even that a great president is possible now. But there's ample reason for believing he would be a competent one. The country did pretty well before charm was considered the chief qualification for its highest office.
Ray L. Garland is a Roanoke Times columnist.
LENGTH: Medium: 97 linesby CNB