ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Wednesday, February 28, 1996 TAG: 9602280086
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL PAGE: A-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: Associated Press
NOTE: Lede
Flat-tax champion Steve Forbes captured Arizona's winner-take-all primary Tuesday, shocking Pat Buchanan and Bob Dole to seize an improbable lead in the turbulent Republican presidential race. Stung in the night's showdown contest, Dole took some solace in winning North and South Dakota.
For Forbes, the dramatic Arizona win meant back-to-back victory celebrations after disappointing fourth-place showings in Iowa and New Hampshire had his candidacy in jeopardy.
The publishing heir won Delaware's primary Saturday, and used that boost - and another major personal investment in TV ads - to surge past Buchanan and Dole in the final weekend of Arizona campaigning.
Forbes was ecstatic with his victory. ``We believe deeply that America has the potential for the greatest economic boom and spiritual renewal in its history,'' he told cheering supporters in Phoenix.
``A week ago they wrote our obituary,'' he said. ``Now tonight we can perhaps write the obituary of conventional political punditry in America.''
Buchanan drew enthusiastic crowds throughout the final weekend and asserted an Arizona win would make him the clear front-runner. Instead, he came away empty handed heading into Saturday's showdown in South Carolina.
Dole flatly predicted a South Carolina victory, and the contest shapes up as his last best chance to launch a turnaround. Forbes trails way back in South Carolina, while Buchanan has been inching up. Dole left no doubt he considered the more conservative Buchanan the bigger threat in the South.
With one-third of Arizona's vote tallied, Forbes was leading with 36 percent. Buchanan and Dole were battling for second; exit polling suggested Buchanan had the edge.
Lamar Alexander was a dim afterthought on the first multi-state primary day of the muddled GOP campaign and some leading Dole supporters said it was time for the former Tennessee governor to get out of the way.
Tuesday's results put Forbes well ahead in the The Associated Press delegate count, with 60 so far. Buchanan had 37 and Dole 36, while Alexander had 10 delegates.
A candidate needs 996 delegates to win the Republican nomination and the success of the anti-establishment candidates sparked talk in Republican circles Tuesday of a contested convention.
The dramatic comeback gave Forbes improbable momentum in the nomination chase, with a critical, crowded stretch of primaries just ahead. Party leaders anxious to see Buchanan blocked from the nomination could turn quick attention to the deep-pocketed Forbes' candidacy.
Dole carried North and South Dakota handily and brushed aside his Sun Belt disappointment.
``We're back in the winning column,'' the Senate majority leader said. ``It feels good.''
``This is not a game,'' he added. ``We're not electing a talk show host. We're electing the president of the United States.''
Buchanan left Arizona early to focus down the road as well, staging an evening rally in Georgia, one of nine states with primaries next Tuesday.
``I'm simply the political instrument of a great movement in America,'' Buchanan said. Earlier, he said establishment Republicans attacked him at the party's peril. ```We can bring the Reagan Democrats home,'' he said. ``I can bring the Perot voters home, if the Republican Party will only open its door to a lot of folks who have been left out and have no voice.''
In addition to his Arizona loss, there was more sobering news for Buchanan in Tuesday's voters surveys.
Asked whether Buchanan was too extreme, half the voters in all three states answered yes and slightly fewer said no. Also, while Buchanan has tried to turn foreign trade into a top campaign issue, half the voters in Arizona and South Dakota and slightly fewer in North Dakota said free trade agreements created jobs.
A majority of voters in Arizona cited taxes as their top concern, and flat-tax advocate Forbes, who spent more than $4 million on TV ads in Arizona alone, won much of their support. In the Dakotas the deficit mattered most, followed by taxes and jobs.
In South Dakota, with 98 percent of precincts counted, Dole had 45 percent of the vote, Buchanan 29 percent, Forbes 13 and Alexander 9.
With 94 percent of North Dakota precincts counted, Dole had 42 percent of the vote, Forbes 20 percent and Buchanan 19 percent. Alexander was fifth with 6 percent, trailing Sen. Phil Gramm, who dropped out of the race two weeks ago but was on North Dakota's mail-in ballots.
``I want someone who's not afraid to say what he believes no matter what other people say,'' said Terry Torkelsen, who voted for Buchanan in Sioux Falls, S.D.
Lori Cooney, 28, voted for Dole in Phoenix, where she said, ``My main opinion is that I want Clinton out.'' Clinton has no major opposition for the Democratic nomination, and he was not on the ballot Tuesday.
Buchanan spent the most time in Arizona, appealing to conservatives with his hard lines against abortion and illegal immigration, a vow to make English the nation's official language and a promise to renegotiate NAFTA and GATT world trade deals he said were to blame for fewer jobs and lower wages at home. His blunt talk wore well in the crusty, anti-establishment West, and won him some converts in the Dakotas, too.
Dole needed to prove New Hampshire was not the beginning of the end for his campaign, as was the case when he ran in 1988. He also was in danger of hitting the primary spending limit, increasing pressure on him to quickly turn the race back in his favor.
Only Arizona is winless among the major candidates, a distinction that weighs heavily on his fund-raising prospects.
``I simply couldn't compete in Arizona or the Dakotas,'' Alexander said Tuesday night, promising his breakthrough would come either Saturday in South Carolina or the following Tuesday. ``I think the longer the race goes, the better I'll do,'' he said.
``After tonight he is no longer a viable candidate,'' was Dole campaign manager Scott Reed's view.
With wins in Louisiana and New Hampshire already, Buchanan suggested Arizona would prove his national appeal - and prove wrong GOP establishment figures who give Buchanan no chance of winning the nomination.
Indiana Sen. Dick Lugar, former State Department official Alan Keyes, California Rep. Bob Dornan and Illinois businessman Morry Taylor were also still running, but far behind.
LENGTH: Long : 115 lines KEYWORDS: POLITICS PRESIDENTby CNB