ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Sunday, April 14, 1996 TAG: 9604120027
SECTION: HORIZON PAGE: 1 EDITION: METRO
DATELINE: WASHINGTON
TYPE: COMMENT
SOURCE: MARIANNE MEANS HEARST NEWSPAPERS
President Clinton's roving eye was supposed to turn female voters against him, but it didn't happen four years ago, and the signs are that women will rally to his cause in even greater numbers this year.
The president's re-election is dependent on the backing of women. White male voters made it clear in 1994 that they heavily favor the Republicans. And so far, he is doing well in the public opinion polls with female voters.
A new survey by the Pew Research Group underscores the persistent growth of the gender gap that first appeared during the 1980 presidential campaign.
That's when Ronald Reagan repositioned the GOP to side with the religious-right backlash against the women's movement by dumping the Equal Rights Amendment, backing a constitutional amendment outlawing abortion and attacking female-oriented federal programs like job training for displaced homemakers. Women noticed, and have been increasingly offended ever since.
The upshot of this gender divergence is that in the new survey Clinton now leads Bob Dole in a two-way trial heat by 12 percentage points. This advantage is entirely because of Clinton's large lead with female voters, according to the Pew study.
The two men are virtually tied among male voters, but 57 percent of the women surveyed would vote for Clinton, as opposed to only 37 percent for Dole. That's a 20-point advantage, and it sends a powerful message.
Furthermore, women also favor Democratic congressional candidates over Republicans by a 15-point margin. If that breakdown holds, and if women are energized to vote in large numbers, Clinton will not only win but carry in a Democratic House.
Much, of course, can happen between now and Election Day. But there is a trend here that will not be easily slowed or reversed.
Women gave Clinton his margin of victory four years ago. Republicans captured control of Congress and many statehouses two years ago not because the gender gap faded but because there was a heavy white male turnout and relatively low female participation.
There are lots of theories that seek to explain this political polarization, leaving aside the fancy that men are from Mars and women from Venus.
One is that women are more compassionate than men and really do believe the federal government should play an active role in caring for its citizens, particularly the least fortunate. They are not as enthusiastic about budget-balancing as about providing services and a safety net.
Women are still relatively new to the marketplace and are more economically insecure than men. Hence, they tend to identify less with the big-business interests beloved of the GOP and more with those who need a federal helping hand.
Adults working for a minimum wage are overwhelmingly female, which makes them sympathize with the Democratic push for a small hourly increase, which Dole and most Republicans oppose. The battles over Medicare, Medicaid and other health care reforms resonate more with women than men, and Democrats also come out ahead here. It is women who have traditionally borne the daily burden of caring for ill parents, children, relatives and friends. They understand all too well the potential impact of huge cuts in health care programs.
And then there is the unmistakable GOP hostility toward working women that spilled over at the 1992 GOP convention and has infected the party's policies ever since.
The GOP's demand for ``family values'' too often sounds suspiciously like a call for women to stay home and remain economically dependent on their husbands. The absolutist emphasis on the rights of a fetus over the living pregnant woman and the call for criminalization of abortion alarm women who want the freedom of making their own decision in such a personal matter.
Women, of course, are not a monolith, any more than men are. Noncollege women with children struggling to make ends meet have a different agenda from that of single college-educated women with hot careers. They are not as politically active as their better-educated sisters and they tend to be less tolerant of lifestyles not their own.
Clinton cannot take women for granted. The Republicans have hired consultants to figure out ways to appeal to those women not already turned off. There must be SOMETHING out there they can still support that is aimed at women rather than the good 'ol boys.
Dole will showcase his wife, Elizabeth, a modern working woman and former Cabinet secretary with a soft Southern touch that makes her less culturally threatening than her fellow lawyer, Hillary Clinton. Bob Dole will stress ``values'' dear to conservatives of both sexes. His surrogates will keep alive the issue of Clinton's personal character, reminding voters of Paula Jones, Gennifer Flowers and whatever remains of Whitewater by next fall.
But Clinton is already working on his own campaign to woo women. He has created a White House office targeted specifically at women. Its goal is to discuss serious issues. The administration means to call attention to its policies of special interest to women, from its campaign against domestic violence to Clinton's veto of the first bill making an abortion procedure a crime. And Hillary will be active.
The good 'ol boys had their day two years ago. Maybe Venus will overrule Mars in the fall.
LENGTH: Medium: 96 linesby CNB