ROANOKE TIMES 
                      Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times

DATE: Thursday, July 25, 1996                TAG: 9607250087
SECTION: CURRENT                  PAGE: NRV-1 EDITION: NEW RIVER VALLEY 
SOURCE: LISA K. GARCIA STAFF WRITER 


CRIME IS DOWN, BUT FOR HOW LONG?

Serious reported crime in the New River Valley fell 4.6 percent in 1995 from the previous year, a drop of a little more than twice the national average.

Law enforcement officials caution that any celebration would be premature because juvenile arrests are up, both locally and nationwide. When that generation hits adulthood, crime is likely to soar, they say.

Lt. Bruce Bradbery with the Blacksburg Police Department said he and other officers worry about youth crime trends.

"Like most in the law enforcement community, we do fear a sharp rise in violent crime in the years to come as the juvenile crime rate continues to increase and the offenders begin to reach the age of 18 and adulthood," Bradbery said.

But some officials say the drop in crime is attributable to crime prevention work.

Chief Herb Cooley, of the Pulaski Police Department, said proactive police work is the reason for the downward trend in his area.

"I have to give a lot of credit to the effective neighborhood watch and community-type policing programs, such as our bike patrol," Cooley said.

Pulaski Sheriff Ralph Dobbins said a better local economy accounts for part of the decrease in crime as well as the grass-roots policing efforts.

However, Cooley said his officers deal with a number of transient young people involved with drugs and called the teen crime trends "terrifying."

"A lot of crimes are being committed by 15-year-olds [and older teens]," Cooley said. "The juveniles themselves know how ineffective the juvenile system is."

The 1995 "Crime in Virginia" report, compiled by the Uniform Crime Reporting Section of the state police, lists, among other comparisons, the number of crimes reported, the crime rate per 100,000 people and the number of arrests.

Statewide the crime rate remained nearly stagnant with a 0.2 percent decrease, the report stated. Nationwide, serious crime fell 2 percent based on statistics gathered by the FBI.

In the New River Valley - Montgomery, Pulaski, Giles and Floyd counties and the city of Radford - crime appears to be in a slow decline in most categories going back three years. Giles and Floyd counties, which have the smallest populations estimated at 16,500 and 12,600 for 1994 and 1995, respectively, also have the lowest crime rates.

Christiansburg's crime rate dropped more than one-fourth during the last three years, but it also touts the highest rate of all the communities in the area. Chief Ron Lemons could not be reached for comment about the crime report.

The crime rate is the number of crimes reported per 100,000 people. It can be computed regardless of a community's population and allows a relative comparison between communities of various populations.

The crime rate is down across the area, except for Floyd County, where changes in the record-keeping system are credited for a more accurate picture of crime and not a true increase.

The crime index, a compilation of the number of serious felonies committed in a community, is down in three of the four counties. Those felonies that are tracked include: murder/non-negligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny, motor vehicle theft and arson.

The only category showing a significant increase is murder. Despite the relatively small number of murders across the four counties and one city - three in 1993 and eight in 1995 - that rise depicts a 60 percent increase over the three-year period. Montgomery County, which has the greatest concentration of people with an estimated 75,700 residents in 1995, recorded the largest number of murders over the three-year period with a total of eight.

Sheriff Doug Marrs won the job as Montgomery County's sheriff when he was elected on the Republican ticket last November. Because he has been in office only about seven months, Marrs said he could not comment on the recent downward trend in the county's crime. He did caution that the slight drop of 4.2 percent this year and a total of 17 percent during the last three years is not likely to persist.

"I don't think it's something significant that we can consider long term," he said.

Despite the drops in the crime rates nationally since 1990, the public often perceives crime as being constantly increasing.

In Radford, the only independent city in the New River Valley, crime dropped 5.5 percent. But one official admitted the drop does not help the public's perception that crime is actually rising.

Capt. Gary Harmon with the Radford Police Department said high-profile crimes like the stranger-abduction and murder of 25-year-old Alicia Showalter Reynolds in Central Virginia, whose body was found two months after she vanished in March, scare people into believing they could be the next random victim.

Reynolds was on her way to visit her mother in Charlottesville when apparently her car broke down on U.S. 29. She was last seen talking to a man driving a pickup truck. No one has been charged.

crime rates

Crime rate for New River Valley counties and its only independent city, Radford

Montgomery County - 3,087.37; 2,674.63; 2,562.75

Pulaski County - 2,608.70, 2,263.01; 2,122.09

Giles County - 1,341.46; 1,448.48; 1,321.21

Floyd County - 725.81, 809.52; 936.51

Radford - 2,871.95, 2,598.77; 2,456.79

Montgomery County Departments

Christiansburg - 5,695.36, 4,561.52; 4,218.75

Blacksburg - 2,406.66, 2,272.99; 2,263.62

Sheriff's Office - 2,352.94, 2,009.69; 1,922.92

The crime rate is the number of crimes committed per 100,000 people. It can be computed regardless of a community's population and allows relatively objective comparisons between communities.


LENGTH: Long  :  110 lines
ILLUSTRATION: GRAPHIC:  Color charts by staff. 
















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