ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Sunday, September 1, 1996 TAG: 9609030072
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: B-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: JOEL TURNER STAFF WRITER
The trailers tell the story.
School enrollment is growing in the Roanoke Valley - steadily, although not rapidly as in some parts of the country.
In recent years, mobile classrooms have been used at Cave Spring Junior High, Oak Grove Elementary and several other schools in Southwest Roanoke County to handle the influx of students.
Crowding at Cave Spring High has forced school officials to begin using trailers for some classes there this year.
Roanoke has nearly 30 mobile classrooms at schools because of enrollment increases in recent years and reductions in class sizes.
It is a turnaround from the 1980s, when school enrollment declined in the valley before it started to climb in the early 1990s.
School officials predict the enrollment growth will continue in Roanoke, Salem and Roanoke County over the next decade.
They said several new school buildings and additions will be needed to accommodate the additional students if the proliferation of trailers is to be halted.
Besides a new Cave Spring High, officials have discussed the need for a new elementary school in Southwest Roanoke County and another in the Bonsack area. The possibility of a new elementary school in the western part of the county has also been mentioned because of growth in the Glenvar area.
In Roanoke, officials said additions will be needed at 12 elementary schools during the next five years to handle the growing enrollment.
But the valley's increase won't be as dramatic as the national enrollment boom that has produced a record number of students in many states, they said.
It also is expected to be slower than in nearby Bedford County, where Superintendent John Kent predicts an enrollment increase of 2,000 - or about 20 percent - during the next five years.
Bedford County, the fastest-growing school system in Western Virginia, gained 400 students last year and expects a similar increase this year. The county's enrollment was almost 10,000 this past year.
In the Roanoke Valley, Roanoke County has the largest enrollment, 13,754, but Roanoke, with 13,127, has been gaining on the county in recent years.
Since 1990, Roanoke's enrollment has increased by 450, or 3.6 percent. The county's enrollment has increased by 360, or 2.7 percent.
Salem has recorded the largest rate of growth in the valley, 9.2 percent, since 1990. Its enrollment was 3,840 last year, up from 3,517 six years ago.
Roanoke's enrollment is expected to rise by nearly 7 percent during the next five years. It is projected to increase by an average of 175 a year, mostly in the elementary grades, and reach 13,900 by 2001.
"These projections are preliminary and they could be affected by several factors," said Richard Kelley, Roanoke's assistant superintendent for operations.
The city will need more than 50 additional classrooms at existing schools to accommodate the enrollment growth during the next five years and replace mobile classrooms, Kelley said.
City school officials are beginning a study to determine the need for large-scale elementary school expansions beyond 2001.
"Beyond five years, we're not sure. There are some indications that the enrollment might level off at about 14,000, but it's too early to say," Kelley said.
In Roanoke County, the biggest growth is predicted to occur in the Cave Spring and Windsor Hills areas, where most schools are either crowded or nearing capacity.
There has been a 5.6 percent increase in the number of students in Southwest County schools during the past decade.
Lloyd Parsell, supervisor of pupil assignment and administration, has predicted the county's enrollment will reach 14,125 by 1999 and decline slightly by 2004.
"We're showing some growth, but it's hard to predict," said Parsell, whose enrollment estimates are more conservative than some others.
Consultants who prepared a report on the need for a new Cave Spring High School and other school improvements predict the enrollment for all grades in Southwest County will increase by 9.5 percent during the next 10 years, from 5,497 to 6,014.
But they estimate the growth in grades nine-12 will be 18. 5 percent, from 1,615 to 1,914 in the next decade. That was the basis for the recommendation for a 1,900-student high school, which was included in the bond issue that was defeated last spring.
Some officials believe the enrollment growth in Southwest County might be larger because of residential projects that have been approved by the Board of Supervisors during the past year.
The enrollment also is increasing in several schools in the Vinton and East County area because of new development there in recent years.
Construction began recently on a 22-room addition at William Byrd High School, where several mobile classrooms have been used in recent years to handle the overflow of students.
Several new residential developments also have been started in Glenvar and West County and could generate more students for schools in that area, officials said.
County Administrator Elmer Hodge recently suggested that it might be prudent to temporarily delay the renovation of Fort Lewis Elementary School until school officials could determine the impact of residential growth on space needs in schools in West County. But school officials decided to proceed with the long-delayed project.
School enrollment is growing faster in many localities in Tidewater and Northern Virginia than the Roanoke Valley and Western Virginia where some rural counties are losing students.
A 9.8 percent increase is predicted for Virginia for elementary and secondary schools by 2006, according to a U.S. Department of Education report released recently.
California is expected to see the largest growth - 1 million within the next 10 years, an increase of 18 percent, according to the report, "The Baby Boom Echo."
Elementary school enrollment began to rise in the mid-1980s as the children of about 76 million baby boomers - born between the end of World War II and 1964 - began school, the report said.
Other factors in the enrollment increase are a higher birth rate among blacks, Hispanics and other minorities and increased immigration.
About 51.7 million students will enter public and private schools this fall, surpassing the 51.3 million postwar baby boomers who were in school in the early 1970s.
The surge in enrollment will last at least through 2006 when 3 million more students will be in school, according to the report.
"It's not a blip on the charts," Education Secretary Richard Riley said in releasing the report. "It's a trend."
The enrollment boom, however, will not be seen in all areas of the country. Seventeen states and the District of Columbia are forecast to have enrollment declines by 2006.
LENGTH: Long : 127 lines ILLUSTRATION: PHOTO: ROGER HART/Staff. A 22-room addition to handleby CNBincreasing enrollment at William
Byrd High School is under construction. color. Graphic: Chart by
staff" Roanoke Valley School Enrollment.