ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Saturday, October 5, 1996 TAG: 9610070048
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: C-1 EDITION: METRO
DATELINE: RICHMOND
SOURCE: Associated Press
The rapid growth of Virginia's prison population will ease during the next few years because violent crime is on the wane, the state's top public safety official said.
But a projected surplus of 299 prison beds in 1999 is expected to quickly disappear. By 2006, the state will need 14,517 more beds beyond those already built or under development, according to figures released Thursday.
Secretary of Public Safety Jerry Kilgore said the new projections ``prove parole abolition is working and the governor's anti-crime initiatives are working.''
After rising 28 percent from 1988 to 1993, violent crime has declined 12 percent since then, Kilgore said. He said police officers have told him fewer people are committing violent crimes because they know they'll have to serve longer sentences.
However, figures provided by the Virginia Department of Criminal Justice Research show that all offenses - violent and nonviolent - began dropping in 1991, before Gov. George Allen took office, and leveled off in 1994-95.
In a projection made last year, corrections officials estimated there would be 29,963 state inmates in June 1996. The actual number turned out to be 28,743.
For the short term, the lower figure ``means we're not in the emergency mode'' of scrambling to build new prisons, said Bill Cimino, a spokesman for Kilgore.
The impact of the state's new truth-in-sentencing law - which went into effect Jan. 1, 1995 - on the size of the prison population isn't expected to be felt significantly for another five years.
According to the Corrections Department, the growth in the prison population has been largely due to a lower parole rate.
``We know we're holding the violent criminals,'' Kilgore said. ``You've got a parole board that certainly ratcheted down your parole grant rate so that people are not out on the streets committing new crimes.''
From June 1993 to June 1994, the prison population rose 14 percent; from June 1994 to June 1995, it increased 15.7 percent.
Projections for the next 10 years suggest more modest growth, ranging as high as 7.2 percent a year. Anticipating the need for more prison space, the state will have more than 8,000 new prison beds by 1999.
The numbers show that in the short term, ``we look good,'' Kilgore said. ``We're going to have the beds we need to house offenders.''
But the state will need 14,000 new beds in 10 years ``over and above what we currently have coming on line,'' he said.
LENGTH: Medium: 55 linesby CNB