ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Sunday, November 3, 1996 TAG: 9611040103
SECTION: BUSINESS PAGE: 3 EDITION: METRO
DATELINE: NEW YORK
SOURCE: KAREN SCHWARTZ ASSOCIATED PRESS
Every few years, ``office politics'' takes on a whole new meaning as employers and employees wonder whether election results will help or hurt them.
But this year, with President Clinton showing a strong lead in polls over Republican Bob Dole, speculation is about Congress, as Americans wonder whether Clinton's Democratic coattails will prove long enough to pull along both the House and the Senate.
``I'd rather see the Democrats control both chambers,'' said Elizabeth Harding, a nurse-practitioner at Columbia-Presbyterian Medical Center in New York.
Business, labor and investors have a lot riding on the election. The outcome of the voting could affect trade, taxes and jobs, and it also might lead to changes in regulations, affirmative action and health care.
Harding took parental leave when she adopted a child a few years ago, and supports the Family and Medical Leave Act passed in Clinton's first term, when he had a Democratic Congress. She also has concerns about GOP policy.
``I did not agree with the welfare cuts and don't agree with the environmental issues that the Republicans want to cut back on,'' she said.
At the other end of the spectrum is Carrie Englert Zimmerman, whose advertising and public relations firm in Tallahassee, Fla., has 50 employees.
She's had two employees take time off under the family leave act, with four more planning to in the next six months. She said it's one of the government regulations that makes it harder for her to keep her business afloat.
``We worry about it every day: either the new taxes, family leave, health care,'' she said.
Zimmerman supports the Republicans because she believes they would be better for her business. Dole, for instance, opposes affirmative action, which Zimmerman calls a burden.
She said her agency is sometimes forced by regulations to partner with a minority-owned firm - and split the profits - in order to get some jobs, although her company is capable of doing the work solo.
``It doesn't matter what your ethnic makeup is,'' she said. ``It's just the best person for the job.''
Some speculate that Congress will be split, with the Democrats gaining the 19 seats needed to recapture a majority in the House and the Republicans retaining a slight majority in the Senate.
``I think that actually that may be a very good result for a lot of people,'' said Michael P. Andrews, an analyst with Salomon Brothers in Washington. ``I think that you would perhaps get the right kind of change in regulatory regimes.''
Business might still be required to meet some rules, but the process would be streamlined, he said.
Meanwhile on Wall Street, a historical mistrust of Democrats persists although stock investors have fared exceedingly well under Clinton. The Dow Jones industrial average roared through the 4,000 mark and the 5,000 and 6,000 milestones in Clinton's first term.
Some fear a Democratic landslide could spook the market. At the same time, others believe Dole's promised 15 percent tax cut could swell the budget deficit, pushing interest rates higher and bringing economic growth to a halt.
Business and labor groups have put big bucks into trying to sway the outcome of congressional elections.
The AFL-CIO is spending $20 million to $25 million on advertising supporting Democrats in key congressional districts. Likewise, a broad coalition of business groups organized by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce raised $5 million to help vulnerable Republican candidates. The coalition includes groups like the National Association of Manufacturers and the National Federation of Independent Business.
While small businesses tend to support Republicans and labor tends to favor Democrats, big business is bipartisan. With some notable exceptions like the tobacco concerns that support the Republicans, big business tends to give money to both parties, favoring the party in power.
Overall, business groups made $242 million directly and indirectly in political contributions in the 18 months ended June 30, while labor groups gave $35 million, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonprofit, nonpartisan group watchdog group.
As a group, financial companies - securities firms, banks, insurance companies and real estate brokers - shelled out $59.8 million, more political money than any other sector of the economy. They were the biggest supporters of Dole, while Clinton received more of his money from lawyers and labor unions.
Regardless of the donations, it's the votes that count. Here's a brief look at some of the possible repercussions from various congressional combinations:
* Democratic president, Democrat-controlled House and Senate:
This government might be inclined to put emphasis on social issues that affect the workplace.
``There would be the possibility of additional regulations put in place that would be similar to the parental leave,'' said James Solloway, director of research at Argus Research in New York. ``The regulations tend to increase the cost of business in the pursuit of socially-worthy goals.''
* Democratic president, Republican-controlled House and Senate:
``The current status quo is probably the best for business,'' said Joe Lieber, a political analyst with HSBC Washington Analysis.
Republicans might try to revamp regulations, although with less exuberance than after the last election.
* Congress split along party lines:
A greater need to compromise to get things done.
``We would expect the pressure to limit federal government spending growth would continue, and the goal to balance the budget by the year 2002 to remain in place,'' said John H. Shaughnessy, director of research at Advest Inc., in Hartford, Conn.
*Republican president, Republican Congress:
Less emphasis on workers' rights.
``I think you'd see sweeping regulatory reform, probably doing away with a lot of environmental regulation, family leave,'' Andrews said. ``I think that anything that Clinton liked would be overturned.''
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