ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Wednesday, November 6, 1996 TAG: 9611060018
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL PAGE: A-1 EDITION: METRO
DATELINE: WASHINGTON
SOURCE: Knight-Ridder/Tribune
Incumbents won by the dozen and the Republican Party appeared likely to retain control of both houses of Congress despite a string of hard-fought Senate victories by Democrats and a strong showing by President Clinton.
After 152 House seats had been called, there was no change in the balance of power.
Democrats held onto Senate seats in New Jersey, Michigan, Massachusetts, Georgia and Illinois, and gained one in New Hampshire. But Republicans captured Democratic seats in Alabama and Nebraska.
``It looks like we're back to the old pattern where incumbency helped both sides,'' said New York political scientist Craig Rimmerman. ``From the standpoint of the electorate, they saw no reason to make any big changes. It's probably attributable to the economy and to the fact we're at peace.''
At stake is control of the national political agenda.
For President Clinton, Republican control of Congress is likely to limit his freedom to maneuver in a second term that he hopes will make him a historic figure, one of the great American presidents.
For the Republicans and House Speaker Newt Gingrich, the results will be a referendum on their self-described revolution. With a majority, Gingrich keeps his speakership, his pulpit and the chance to pass the ``Contract With America.''
In addition to pressing for a balanced budget and a smaller federal government, the Republicans vow to pursue a broad array of investigations into the Clinton administration's ethics.
Exit polls indicated that ideology appeared secondary to personality and familiarity. Many voters favored a continued division of party power between the White House and Congress, heeding calls not to give Clinton a ``blank check.''
One in six Clinton voters in a Voter News Service exit poll said they would prefer that their choice for president be curbed by a Republican-controlled Congress.
Money counted. In an overwhelming number of races, the candidate with the biggest treasury won. In early going, the AFL-CIO was reaping the rewards of its $35 million investment in the campaign as seven of eight Senate races went its way.
Democratic candidates appeared to get a big boost from women voters.
Women voted Democratic for House candidates by a 5-4 margin, while the percentages among men were nearly the reverse. In Senate races, according to the exit poll, 18 percent of Republican women said they felt more comfortable with the Democratic candidate.
Sen. John Breaux, D-La., said he sees moderation in many of the Democrats elected to the Senate. He said the results illustrate the failure of Republican efforts to portray Democratic moderates as ``liberal, liberal, liberal.''
The Democratic Party, Breaux said, is following Clinton toward a ``more mainstream, more middle of the road'' agenda.
``People would rather have gridlock than any party going in one direction,'' said Larry Gerston, a political scientist at San Jose State University. ``Also, generally speaking, people always go with incumbents. What happened in 1994 was an aberration. What happened Tuesday was the norm.''
Thelma Kaufman, 59, a retired small-business owner from Jefferson City, Mo., said she knew Dole would lose but thought it was important to cast a ballot for the GOP. ``I certainly wanted to see the Republicans stay in Congress,'' Kaufman said.
Heading into the election, the Republicans controlled the Senate by a 53-47 majority. The Democrats needed to pick up four seats to win power. A gain of three seats would allow the Democrats to win votes along party lines, with Vice President Al Gore breaking ties.
But the math was not that simple, because eight Democratic senators resigned along with six Republicans, the most in history. Seats once considered safe for Democrats - such as Georgia's Sam Nunn, New Jersey's Bill Bradley and Louisiana's Bennett Johnston - were up for grabs.
In the House, the Democrats needed to pick up 19 seats to regain the majority they held for 40 years until the anti-Clinton, anti-incumbent tide of 1994. Thirty Democrats decided not to run for re-election, along with 23 Republicans.
The biggest challenge for the Democrats came in the South, where 19 of the vacant House seats were located. The region has been dominated by Republicans for a decade, and exit polls indicated a strong Republican showing there Tuesday.
In the most expensive campaign in U.S. history, a Knight-Ridder examination of campaign finances showed that the average Republican House candidate raised $466,962, an increase of 54 percent from 1994. The average Democrat raised $385,187, an increase of 7 percent.
Two of the biggest factors in the campaigns for House and Senate were named Clinton and Gingrich. The epithet of the year is ``extremism,'' whether on the right or the left.
Republicans warned that the combination of a Democratic president and a Democratic Congress would spell a return to bigger government, fatter budgets and more regulation.
Likewise, Democrats from the top of the ticket to the bottom raised their voices against the supposed perils of a ``Gingrich Congress.'' They drew a portrait of ham-fisted budget cutting and threats to Medicare and the environment.
LENGTH: Medium: 100 lines KEYWORDS: ELECTIONby CNB