ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Wednesday, December 18, 1996 TAG: 9612180021
SECTION: BUSINESS PAGE: B-6 EDITION: METRO
COLUMN: Marketplace
SOURCE: MEGAN SCHNABEL
If you haven't finished your Christmas shopping yet, you're in good company.
As of late Sunday afternoon, just 43 percent of Americans had completed their holiday shopping, according to Britt Beemer, chairman of America's Research Group.
In most years, 48 percent to 58 percent of those polled have finished buying gifts two weekends before Christmas, he said.
"Consumers are saying in big numbers that they found nothing new and that they didn't find the big savings that they thought they would find this Christmas," he said.
Of the 800 people polled, 30 percent said they had some or a lot of shopping left to do and 27 percent said they may be done.
Some retailers, looking at still-full shelves, may be starting to panic, and that could be good news for bargain-hunters and last-minute shoppers. Kenneth Gassman, a retail analyst with Davenport & Co. of Virginia in Richmond, said the Christmas shopping season has become "a smidge soft" after a strong start the day after Thanksgiving.
That means if you're holding out for markdowns, you may just get lucky. Early in the season, analysts were warning shoppers to shop early and to expect few deep discounts. Retailers, it seemed, learned their lesson last Christmas, when they ordered way too much stock and were stuck with storerooms of unsold merchandise after sales slumped early in the season.
This year, they went into the season with smaller inventories on the theory that they would have less to unload in late December. But because people haven't been buying as much as they had hoped, they may be forced to deepen their discounts anyway.
You'll be able to tell when retailers get desperate, Gassman said. Ads for sale campaigns planned months in advance - such as the ones advertised in those glossy circulars stuffed in Sunday newspapers - typically list specific items on sale: 33 percent off all women's leather wallets, 25 percent off men's flannel shirts.
"When you start seeing full-page or half-page ads that say `15 percent off the lowest price,' and you can tell it was put together on a computer the night before, that's when you start to worry," he said.
There are, of course, plenty of sales going on right now. But the sales offering 30 percent to 50 percent off that we're seeing now are signs of the season - American consumers have been trained never to buy anything at full price, so retailers give us discounts - rather than desperate attempts to unload merchandise.
And several local retailers say they aren't at all concerned about having a storeful of merchandise Dec.26.
"We've had a terrific season," said Somona Stacey, assistant manager of the Stein Mart store at Tanglewood Mall. "We're way ahead of plan."
Last weekend was, for them, the busiest of the Christmas buying season, although the accessory and gift departments - those that require no correct size or color - should still be hopping through next week.
At the other end of the mall, Goody's Family Clothing has been doing brisk business in denim, sweaters and flannel, said store manager Debbie Grisso.
"Somebody in our corporate office did something right," she said. "It's been a good season."
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. said it is cutting prices as much as last year, but it won't be hurt because inventory was lower at the start. Plus, a lot of items are selling well this season, as opposed to last year when only a few items - such as toys - were in big demand.
"We're making sure that we don't have excessive inventory and that the items we have in stores are what customers want and the price they want," said spokesman Keith Morris.
Neither does Arthur Martinez, chairman of Sears, Roebuck & Co., worry much.
"We don't expect a flurry of last-minute price cuts," he said.
- Bloomberg Business News contributed to this story.
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