ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1997, Roanoke Times
DATE: Friday, February 7, 1997 TAG: 9702070062
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL PAGE: A-6 EDITION: METRO
DATELINE: WASHINGTON
SOURCE: The Washington Post
WHEN THE CENTURY TURNS, government computers need to turn with it. The cost of helping them do it may exceed the first estimate by billions.
The government will have to spend at least $2.3 billion to reprogram computers to understand dates past the start of the year 2000, according to a long-anticipated report released Thursday.
The report by the Office of Management and Budget also said employees at every federal agency have begun studying computer systems to determine which programs need revision. Congress has accused certain agencies of neglecting the issue.
Many large systems operate on a two-digit year-dating system, with 19 assumed as the first two digits. Those computers, if not reprogrammed, will think the year 2000 - or 00 - is 1900. That could bring many machines to a halt and lead others to spew wildly erroneous data.
The problem is particularly prevalent in the government because most agencies have older computers that use the two-digit system.
Some Republican congressional leaders criticized Thursday's financial projections as way too low, based on an incomplete survey and inaccurate estimates of the cost of testing machines that have been fixed. They also contend some federal agencies are low-balling costs because the White House has not allotted them additional money to fix the glitch.
The administration's figure is considerably lower than previous projections by computer industry analysts. Gartner Group Inc., a consulting firm in Stamford, Conn., last year had estimated it would cost about $30 billion.
``I'm highly skeptical of these cost figures,'' said Rep. Stephen Horn, R-Calif., chairman of the House subcommittee on government management, information and technology. ``It may not be a $30 billion problem, but it's certainly not going to be as low as $2.3 billion.''
Computer industry experts who have been following the date problem also questioned the administration's projections.
``This is a good start, but as we go ahead, we'll see the numbers increase,'' predicted Olga Grkavac, a vice president at the Arlington, Va.-based Information Technology Association of America, an industry group. ``It may be that we're talking about billions more.''
Some agencies, including the Defense, Interior and Transportation departments, still are studying the scope of their problem and may have to increase their cost estimates later in the year, Horn contended.
The $2.3 billion estimate does not include the costs of fixing electronically controlled devices that aren't computers - such things as elevators and missile systems. Nor does it cover the costs of fixing state and local computer systems for welfare and food-stamp programs that the federal government is obligated to pay for.
``We hope to have better numbers ... as we better understand the scope of the problem,'' said Sally Katzen, the OMB's administrator of information and regulatory affairs, in a speech to government computer contractors Wednesday.
Katzen said the administration intends to pay for the reprogramming using agencies' existing budgets for computer services.
LENGTH: Medium: 62 linesby CNB