
                         THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
                 Copyright (c) 1994, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: SUNDAY, June 12, 1994                    TAG: 9406120060 
SECTION: LOCAL                     PAGE: B3    EDITION: FINAL  
SOURCE: STAFF REPORT 
DATELINE: 940612                                 LENGTH: Short

SPECIALIST CHANGES HURRICANE FORECAST

{LEAD} A scientist who sees eye to eye with hurricanes says that the 1994 summer storm season isn't going to be as bad as he thought.

Dr. William Mason Gray, the Colorado State University hurricane specialist, scaled down an earlier forecast and predicted there would be just one severe hurricane this year and only five named storms.

{REST} In March, Gray said preliminary global studies indicated there would two major storms and six named hurricanes.

But in a revised forecast Friday, Gray said the continued influence of El Nino's warm water on the west coast of South America will cut down the likelihood of Atlantic hurricanes.

El Nino is a surge of hot Pacific currents that displace normal cold water along the South American coast.

The present El Nino, one of Gray's key forecast factors, has persisted for three years - an unusually long time.

``Despite the below-average forecast, the 1994 season is still expected to be more active than the last three hurricane seasons,'' Gray warned.

by CNB