THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1994, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: THURSDAY, June 16, 1994 TAG: 9406160448
SECTION: LOCAL PAGE: B1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY WARREN FISKE, STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: 940616 LENGTH: RICHMOND
Cautious, issue-oriented candidates and a few warm-and-fuzzy television commercials - at least for the first half of the summer, political analysts say.
{REST} But as Election Day draws nearer, cover your eyes and expect the candidates to forget about their promises not to engage in personal attacks, they warn.
``This will be an extraordinarily intricate race for the candidates and voters,'' said Robert Holsworth, a political scientist at Virginia Commonwealth University. ``It will be like a complex video game where one person can vanquish an opponent and then turn around to find two other opponents firing in on him.''
``By the time we're through, we'll have had our fill of negative politics,'' said Thomas R. Morris, a political scientist who is president of Emory and Henry College. ``The unfortunate thing is that what's now a four-way race could end up as a five-way race. The fifth option will be not voting.''
Usually, political races boil down to a referendum on the incumbent officeholder, which would be Democrat Charles S. Robb. But this year, most analysts agree, the race centers on a challenger - Republican Oliver L. North, who gained national notoriety during the Iran-Contra scandal of the Reagan administration.
A recent poll found that 53 per cent of Virginia voters have a negative view of North. During a normal year, that might spell doom for a candidate. But in a four-way race, North could conceivably win with as little as 26 percent of the vote.
Many observers predict that Virginia will actually see two races wrapped in one. The preliminary bout, they say, will occur between North's three opponents - Robb; former Democratic Gov. L. Douglas Wilder, who is expected to run as an independent; and former Republican Attorney General J. Marshall Coleman, who is to announce his independent candidacy today.
At issue will be which of the three can emerge as the strongest opponent to North. Holsworth said he expects a gravitation of moderate voters toward that candidate in the closing weeks of the campaign.
``Voters, by the end of the campaign, may not be voting for their first choice, but for the person that might be in the best position to stop the candidate they like the least,'' he said.
Like North, Robb and Wilder also receive high negative ratings from voters. The first step for all three is to improve their popularity, which may explain why each is promising to run an issue-oriented campaign and refrain from personal attacks.
North, 50, began his image-improvement campaign Tuesday by airing a television commercial in which his wife, Betsy, extols his virtues as a family man and patriot. North is hoping to raise a record $20 million for his campaign. He appears to have a strong base with conservative and evangelical Republicans and may run strongest in rural areas of the state.
He is hoping to expand his base by attracting the blue-collar and labor votes that traditionally belong to Democrats.
Robb, 54, is offering himself as a battle-proven incumbent who has made tough decisions, such as voting for tax increases in Congress. He is refusing to discuss reports of womanizing that have dogged him in recent years. Robb has strong support in Northern Virginia, a vast organization of Democratic organizers and a campaign treasury that will allow him to compete with North on the airwaves.
Wilder, 63, is expected to win at least 70 percent of the traditionally Democratic black vote, according to polls. He is hoping to woo moderate voters with his record as a fiscal conservative. During his term as governor from 1990 to '94, Virginia was one of two states that did not raise tax rates.
Wilder's popularity has been hurt in recent years by his public feuding with Robb. It's an open question whether Wilder can continue to press his claim that Robb is ``unfit to hold office'' without dampening his own election chances. Also unknown is whether the $2 million Wilder hopes to raise for the campaign will be enough to compete with North and Robb.
Coleman, 52, is gearing his campaign at moderate, suburban Republicans who are dissatisfied with the party's backing of North. Coleman is running with strong backing from the state's senior senator, Republican John W. Warner. It's unknown whether Warner's vast popularity - and his fund-raising network - can be transferred to Coleman. Coleman, the GOP's nominee for governor in 1981 and 1989, is already facing charges of being a political opportunist. In the early 1980s he supported abortion rights. In 1989, he ran on a strong anti-abortion platform. This year, he's pro-choice again.
For the time being, however, he is benefiting from his five-year absence from politics. Most voters recognize his name, and only 12 percent say they don't like him.
{KEYWORDS} U.S. SENATE RACE CANDIDATE ELECTION
by CNB