THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1994, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Sunday, October 30, 1994 TAG: 9410300079
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY MARGARET EDDS, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: Long : 135 lines
U.S. Sen. Charles S. Robb enters the final week of his re-election bid against Oliver L. North with a kiss from Nancy Reagan and with several prospects for shaking loose a campaign that has stagnated in polls for months.
According to key advisers, Robb's hopes rest with independent J. Marshall Coleman's eroding support, heating up lukewarm African-American voters through the help of former Gov. L. Douglas Wilder and exploiting a North gaffe on Social Security.
While opinions within the campaign are mixed on the impact of Reagan's remark Thursday night that North lied to her husband, former President Ronald Reagan, the comment may sway some conservative voters who remain undecided.
Even so, it is far from certain that the combination is enough to bring victory to Robb, a Democrat, in a contest that polls and analysts say is a tossup. Working in North's favor is a rare passion among supporters, a get-out-the-vote juggernaut that may be the most sophisticated ever seen in a U.S. Senate race and a pro-Republican national mood that has aided North's slow, steady progress in polls.
North's job, says his campaign consultant, Mark Goodin, is to stay cool and repeatedly hammer two points: ``Ollie North will fight for real change. Ollie North is the conservative in this race.''
Overshadowing the contest is uncertainty about the impact of Coleman, a former Republican state attorney general. While Democrats maintain that Coleman's mid-teens standing in polls has eroded over the past few days in their private tracking, North operatives and Coleman's supporters say otherwise.
Both independent and campaign polls have consistently shown that Coleman hurts Robb more than North. Those Coleman supporters who express a second choice favor Robb by about 2-to-1.
While Republican tracking is said to show Coleman's supporters hanging tough, U.S. Sen. John W. Warner - Coleman's foremost promoter - said his gut feeling is that the independent is gaining ground.
``My intuition,'' based on personal campaigning with Coleman, ``is to the contrary'' of Democratic surveys, he said. Warner predicted that Coleman will have gained ground in independent polls to be published this week, ``and then the dynamics materially change.''
In theory, one of the few potentially cataclysmic moments in the last days of the campaign could come if Warner is wrong. Coleman and the Republican senator, who has said North is unfit for the Senate, would then have to decide whether Coleman best serves their purposes by staying in the race.
Both have said that Coleman will not drop out.
While looking for Coleman defectors, the Robb camp is also spending time securing its base - a dangerous preoccupation so late in a campaign, political analysts say. As high as 40 percent of black voters have indicated in polls that they are still undecided, perhaps a reflection of lengthy feuding between Robb and Wilder.
But associates say Wilder, the nation's first elected black governor, would like nothing better than to be viewed as Robb's savior and last week he began campaigning feverishly. In contrast to the 1993 election cycle, when he was barely visible for Democratic gubernatorial nominee Mary Sue Terry, Wilder is keeping a daily schedule of interviews and appearances.
Friday, he convened a meeting between Robb and about 25 African-American ministers who supported Wilder's independent bid in the Senate race. Glenn Davidson, Wilder's political assistant, said the group is part of about 150 former Wilder-team ministers turning to Robb.
Saturday, Robb was scheduled to meet with Wilder's field coordinators, who are joining the Democrat's campaign for a final get-out-the-vote push.
Some Robb partisans say Wilder will add only marginally to Robb's final black vote, but others praised the former governor. ``He's been a champion. He's been working his tail off,'' said David Doak, Robb's media and campaign consultant.
Meanwhile, North has less obvious potential for moving major blocs of voters in his direction over the next week. But Republican advisers believe that may not matter if the GOP tide predicted nationally on Election Day holds, and if get-out-the-vote efforts work as expected.
The turnout advantage held by Republicans was underscored last week in a survey for Cable News Network, the Gallop Poll and USA Today. According to a study of more than 1,000 voters, Democrats have a slight advantage in the population at large. Among registered voters, 49 percent said they favor Democrats this year; 46 percent preferred Republicans. But among ``likely voters,'' the margin tilted toward Republicans by 53 percent to 43 percent, indicating that GOP supporters are more driven to vote.
The North campaign appears poised to take full advantage of that gap. In midsummer, well before most campaigns begin turnout activities, the North team used professional phone bank operations to identify more than a half-million Virginia households favorable to North, according to campaign strategists.
Since then, they have maintained a steady program of phone messages, mailings, and volunteer contacts with both supporters and individuals thought to be open to North's message. While sometimes weekly contacts from the campaign - often combined with fund-raising appeals - may not be the most efficient use of dollars, North could afford the luxury because of his $18 million war chest.
Over the next week, the North campaign, the state Republican Party, the Christian Coalition and other conservative groups probably will make more than a million phone calls to ensure that their supporters vote.
``I don't want to quote budget figures,'' said Goodin of the North campaign. But the effort ``is unprecedented on a Senate level.''
Democrats, working through the AFL-CIO, black ministers and the state party's joint senatorial-congressional campaign, also have a substantial vote turnout effort. But the differences are underscored by the fact that the party's effort is later in starting and is being headed by a volunteer brought in to Richmond a few weeks ago.
Tim Ridley, who has substantial experience running Election Day operations in Virginia and nationally, is overseeing the Democratic campaign. He makes light of any perceived Republican superiority. ``I'd argue overwhelmingly that what you want to do is orchestrate and concentrate your effort as close to the election as possible,'' he said.
Turnout is not disassociated from events in the campaign, he said, and in that sense, Democrats believe they hold a closing advantage. Two examples are Nancy Reagan's comments and an off-the-script comment by North last week that Social Security might be made voluntary.
North's campaign quickly backtracked to say that North was only referring to a possible option, and they produced a bill in which Robb voted to increase the portion of taxable income for Social Security recipients earning more than $32,000 a year.
But Democrats, who have seen how substantially threats to Social Security move voters in focus groups, believe that might be a powerful weapon in turning tentative North supporters to Robb.
Said Doak, the Robb strategist: ``He really stepped in it.'' ILLUSTRATION: Color photos
ROBB: Trying to gain support from African Americans, Coleman
defectors.
NORTH: Stressing his role as a conservative and as an agent of
change.
COLEMAN: Sticking to his campaigning as his supporters predict a
turnaround.
KEYWORDS: U.S. SENATE RACE VIRGINIA CANDIDATES POLLS by CNB