THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1994, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Friday, November 4, 1994 TAG: 9411040710
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY WARREN FISKE, STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: RICHMOND LENGTH: Medium: 92 lines
Although Democrat Charles S. Robb appears to be gaining last-minute momentum, Virginia's race for the U.S. Senate is still too close to call, according to two polls released Thursday.
And both surveys suggest that the independent candidacy of J. Marshall Coleman helps Republican Oliver L. North by taking votes away from Robb.
A survey of 821 registered voters by Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research Inc. of Columbia, Md., showed 37 percent of the respondents favoring Robb, 36 percent backing North and 17 percent supporting Coleman.
Of the 803 registered voters polled by Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond, 38 percent backed Robb, 36 percent favored North and 15 percent supported Coleman.
Because each poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, the results mean that the race between Robb and North is technically a dead heat.
But the surveys suggest that Robb's campaign, which had been stalled through the summer and much of the fall, may be inching forward. Last month, Robb trailed North by 4 percentage points in a Mason-Dixon poll and was running virtually even with him in a VCU survey.
A surge of black support appears to be responsible for Robb's gains. Two weeks ago, Robb gained the endorsement of L. Douglas Wilder, the nation's first elected black governor. Wilder has been actively campaigning for Robb ever since.
The Mason-Dixon poll showed Robb's black support increased by 12 percentage points in the last month. The VCU survey showed a 9 percentage point increase.
Both polls showed Robb winning three out of four black votes. Among white voters, the polls showed North with about 41 percent; Robb, 31 percent; and Coleman, 17 percent.
The surveys showed Robb leading in the populous urban and suburban areas of Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads - the centers that gave Wilder his narrow victory for governor in 1989. North leads in the Richmond metropolitian area and across the state's rural regions.
The polls show little momentum for Coleman - who has been stuck in the low to mid-teens in support since this summer - and suggest that his continued presence in the race ultimately helps North.
Coleman supporters were asked whom they would support if Coleman dropped out of the race. Both polls found that Coleman supporters would choose Robb over North by a 2-to-1 ratio in such an instance.
Bert Rohrer, a spokesman for Robb, said Coleman's only role in the campaign is that of a spoiler.
``We've been saying for a week or two that Marshall is not in a position to win this election but he can serve to put Oliver North in the Senate,'' Rohrer said. ``At this point, a vote for Marshall Coleman is a vote for Oliver North. We'll do everything we can to get that message across.''
Anson Franklin, Coleman's campaign manager, called Rohrer's remarks ``an insult'' and vowed that the independent will stay in the race. He predicted that voters who are concerned about the character of Robb and North will flock to Coleman during the final days.
``Marshall Coleman is here to stop two tainted candidates,'' Franklin said. ``We don't see any difference between stopping North or stopping Robb. We're saying that voters deserve an alternative.''
U.S. Sen. John W. Warner, who has put his Republican career on the line by backing Coleman as an alternative to North, could not be reached for comment Thursday. But Warner has stressed in recent days that he will stay with Coleman no matter what.
The polls found that North and Robb each receive negative reactions from about 50 percent of the voters. But Brad Coker, president of Mason-Dixon, said there is ``no sign'' that Coleman can capitalize on his opponents' weaknesses.
The VCU poll found an 11 percentage-point decline in voters who said they trust North to tell the truth. Last month, 37 percent said North could be trusted while 57 percent expressed doubt. This month, 26 percent said they trusted North while 69 percent had doubts.
Even among Republicans, only 50 percent said they trust North's veracity while 46 percent expressed concerns. VCU pollster Scott Keeter attributes that finding partly to the recent statement by former first lady Nancy Reagan that North is a liar.
A spokesman for North did not return phone calls Thursday. Earlier this week, however, campaign officials said they would not be surprised if North trailed slightly in the polls. They predicted that North could easily make up the deficit with a massive get-out-the vote effort this weekend that will make telephone calls to 200,000 Republican voters.
Sources in the North campaign also maintain that their supporters are more motivated then Robb's and, therefore, more likely to vote.
The Mason-Dixon poll was conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday. VCU ran its survey from Sunday through Wednesday.
KEYWORDS: U.S. SENATE RACE VIRGINIA CANDIDATES POLLS by CNB