THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1994, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Tuesday, December 6, 1994 TAG: 9412060341
SECTION: LOCAL PAGE: B3 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY MIKE MATHER, STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: PORTSMOUTH LENGTH: Medium: 74 lines
Barring an unexpected killing streak this month, Portsmouth will relinquish its spot on the list of the nation's 25 most murderous cities - a list based on FBI statistics released Saturday.
According to the FBI numbers, Portsmouth's murder rate of 31.1 slayings per 100,000 residents ranked the city 24th nationally, just ahead of Los Angeles.
The nation's highest homicide rate of 1993 was recorded in Gary, Ind., where 89 people per 100,000 were murdered.
This year, through Monday afternoon, 20 homicides have been reported in Portsmouth. At the current pace, city detectives can expect to investigate about 22 slayings by New Year's Eve. That would drop the murder rate to 20.8 and ensure Portsmouth's removal from the list of cities branded the 25 deadliest.
Police spokesman G.A. Brown said looking only at the city's murder rate doesn't give a complete view.
``No single statistic captures the spirit of the community and the steps the community is taking to curtail crime,'' Brown said. ``Murder deals with human behavior problems, and that's not something we have any control over.''
The number of murders annually in Portsmouth has been declining since a high of 36 in 1992. The number of violent crimes reported in Portsmouth has also been declining since 1992.
Brown said that because murder is hard to predict, police can't claim full credit when numbers drop, as the numbers have this year.
``I wish there was something in particular we could attribute it to,'' he said. ``But no one can explain why there is an increase and decrease. We would like to take credit for (the decrease), but by no means can we, because we have little or no control over it.''
Brown said community involvement usually has more positive effects on crime rates than do police.
Since 1960, the number of murders annually in Portsmouth has fluctuated wildly. In 1978, for example, there were 14 murders. In 1979, the number jumped to 26, but by 1981 had receded to 16, and by 1985 had dipped to 12.
The yearly murder average in Portsmouth from 1960 to 1993 is 18.
And because of Portsmouth's changing population, the murder rate also fluctuates.
In 1960, when 144,773 people lived in the city, the 11 murders meant a rate of 7.6 per 100,000.
There were also 11 murders in 1970, but because the population dropped to 110,963 the rate increased to 9.9.
In 1980, the population fell to 104,577. But the number of murders jumped to 24, giving a rate of 22.9.
And in 1990, when the population dropped to 104,361 and the murders fell to 18, the homicide rate dipped to 17.2.
``Homicides are something you can't predict,'' Brown said.
Portsmouth's 1993 murder rate is the highest in Hampton Roads, and will likely remain at the top when 1994 statistics are compiled.
These are the 1993 murder rates for the other cities:
Chesapeake, 7.7; Hampton, 10.1; Newport News, 12.2; Norfolk, 24.1; Virginia Beach, 5.2. Suffolk is not included because its population is well below 100,000. ILLUSTRATION: FLUCTUATIONS
Since 1960, the number of murders annually in Portsmouth has
fluctuated wildly:
1978 14
1979 26
1981 16
1985 12
1993 31
KEYWORDS: MURDER RATE HAMPTON ROADS MURDER LIST HOMICIDE by CNB