THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Wednesday, January 4, 1995 TAG: 9501040372
SECTION: LOCAL PAGE: B1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: GUY FRIDDELL
LENGTH: Medium: 64 lines
From the title of political scientist Larry Sabato's analysis of the U.S. Senate election in Virginia, one gathers he wasn't pleased.
``The Senate Race from Hell'' he calls it, ``a political year most Virginians would prefer to forget.''
The two parties offered ``a nightmarish'' choice: Democrat Charles S. Robb, whose first term was known for a ``series of tawdry personal and political scandals,'' and Republican Oliver L. North, ``an ex-felon and the central figure in the most notorious national scandal of the 1980s.''
In an example ``of Virginia exceptionalism,'' this state bucked the national GOP tide, re-electing not only Robb but also six of seven Democratic U.S. House members.
No candidate in Virginia's modern history has ever won seven congressional districts but lost the election - until Oliver North.
One factor in North's loss was the turnout of black voters for Robb: 86 percent in the exit poll, 93 percent in sample black precincts. North's 4 percent in sample precincts was the lowest ever recorded in Virginia.
If former Gov. Doug Wilder had stayed in the race, the exit poll suggests, he would have won 14 percent of the votes. Robb received 8 of 10 of those votes - and could not have won without them.
(Bill Clinton will give Wilder a post for backing Robb, some speculate. More likely, Clinton will appoint Wilder for what he can do for Bill in the 1996 presidential race.)
The ``religious right'' (18 percent of the electorate) was North's base, with 7 of 10 voting Republican. But with Protestants overall, North ran far behind Republicans nationally. North narrowly won Catholics. Jews were heavily pro-Robb.
(How a poll sifts out ``religious right'' voters from the merely religious, one can only wonder.)
In the campaign, polls suggested Independent Republican J. Marshall Coleman was drawing more heavily from Democrats than Republicans. Not so, Sabato asserts.
``Republican defections crippled North,'' he writes. Robb won almost 9 of 10 Democrats, but North drew just three-quarters of Republicans - ``far below the usual.''
North won independents, 46 percent to 38 percent, but they could not compensate for GOP losses.
Moderates and liberals elected Robb, he writes. Nationally, Republicans did reasonably well, with moderates gaining 42 percent. But in Virginia, North could gain ``only a miserable 29 percent.''
On the Larry King show, North based his pledge to run again for office on his showing among young voters. The youngest (18 to 29 years) preferred North by 17 percent, but they were only 12 percent of the voters.
Middle-aged (30 to 49 years) elected Robb. Comprising half the electorate, they picked him by 12 percent. Older voters (50-plus years) split evenly between Robb and North.
There's more. Statistics are as ample as salted peanuts at a cocktail party. When Sabato's work is published, I'll alert you. ILLUSTRATION: Photo
Political scientist
Larry Sabato
by CNB