THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Monday, February 6, 1995 TAG: 9502040217
SECTION: BUSINESS WEEKLY PAGE: 04 EDITION: FINAL
TYPE: Opinion
SOURCE: Ted Evanoff
LENGTH: Medium: 63 lines
Never in Hampton Roads have as many people had jobs as in 1994. By November, 629,300 civilian jobs on the Peninsula and the southside were filled.
During the year Tidewater added 16,700 jobs, a rate of growth that surpassed Richmond.
So there was hardly any suspense when the Virginia Society of Certified Public Accountants surveyed 5,558 of its members throughout the state in early November.
Asked if Virginia business conditions were good, normal or bad, the accountants were decidedly upbeat. Almost 39 percent said good. A year earlier, only 14 percent were so inclined.
What was troubling, though, was the perception in Hampton Roads. From Williamsburg to Suffolk, accountants were noticeably more dour.
In Hampton Roads, 32 percent of those surveyed rated conditions good. In Richmond, 42.5 percent chose good; in Roanoke, 45.5 percent.
All these numbers seem relevant today for one reason: the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee. Meeting last week, the group cranked interest rates higher for the seventh time since last winter.
Not long ago, you could work in Hampton Roads and overlook the Fed. Military spending tended to cushion the region from the whipsaws in the business cycle.
Whether the mid-Atlantic was in a bust or a boom there was steady work for A-6 Intruder mechanics at Oceana or Navy shipwrights in Portsmouth.
Times have changed. It's not just the smaller Navy. Shopping centers and office parks have sprouted.
Last summer, 29,800 private establishments were doing business in Hampton Roads, a massive increase compared to the 18,600 in June '84.
William F. Mezger, senior economist at the Virginia Employment Commission, noted the change.
``Hampton Roads is not quite as dependent on defense and the military because other things have come in there. Business and health services have expanded,'' Mezger said. ``When you had the military in there as the dominant force, Hampton Roads didn't suffer quite as much.''
Tidewater accountants, of course, are still mindful of the military, which stations more than 100,000 personnel in Hampton Roads.
Asked in November to cite the economic negatives ahead for the state, 53.3 percent of area CPAs listed defense spending.
What was intriguing, though, was another question on the survey. By November '94, after the Fed's repeated ratcheting up of the rates, 54.1 percent of the Tidewater accountants listed interest rates as a major concern. The worry apparently traces in part to the region's economic evolution.
Patrick S. Callahan, a partner at the Norfolk accounting firm Frederick B. Hill & Co., said more manufacturing and service firms operate today in Hampton Roads.
So it's not only defense spending that preoccupies the region today. It's also the business cycle.
And it means there's one other building in Washington in addition to the Pentagon to keep an eye on. This one houses the Fed. by CNB