THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Monday, March 6, 1995 TAG: 9503060023
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY MASON PETERS, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: Medium: 89 lines
Go ahead, make plans. This year's merry month of May should, will, might, could be a warm sunshiny time to rent a cottage at the beach, have a picnic or hold an outdoor church supper if you live on the mid-Atlantic coast.
But first: You must have faith in the new National Weather Service long-range forecasting system that should, will, might, could accurately predict the climate more than a year in advance.
And while you're at it: Talk to a friendly neighborhood gambler and learn how to play the odds.
Finally: Keep an eye on El Nino. The vast surge of warm Pacific water that periodically moves east to the coast of South America is a global climate-maker, and the weather service decided in January that it could track El Nino accurately enough to make those far-future weather predictions for North America.
``We think the extended outlooks will be helpful if you're willing to estimate the chances that a certain kind of weather is likely to occur,'' said Edward O'Lenic, head of the National Weather Service long-range forecasting operation at Camp Springs, Md.
``But you have to learn to live with forecasts that are right 5 1/2 times to seven times out of 10,'' he said.
So if you count on next Thanksgiving being cool but not rainy, as the weather service predicts, remember there's about a 50-50 chance that the new ``Long Lead Climate Outlook'' might be wrong.
Each month, the predictions will become more accurate as they get closer to the actual day, O'Lenic said.
U.S. weather experts say that if the predictions are used wisely, they will save time and money for the economy because of better planning.
``Climate outlooks are completely different from regular weather forecasts - they're based on probability,'' said David R. Rodenhuis, director of the Climate Analysis Center that produces the new weather tools with the help of a super Cray-90 computer.
``And tools are precisely what they are,'' he said. ``Used properly, you can more effectively plan agriculture operations, water resource management, fuel and gas distribution over specific areas - that sort of thing.
``Advances in long-range forecasting techniques and improvements in supercomputing over the past several years have finally made it possible to make climate predictions beyond the former three-month period.''
Rodenhuis and O'Lenic first announced the new long-lead climate forecasting at the January meeting of the American Meteorological Society in Dallas.
``Keep in mind that we're forecasting climate - the expected temperature and precipitation trends. We're not talking about what kind of weather there will be on a given day,'' said Milton Brown, senior climatologist at the Southeast Regional Climate Center in Columbia, S.C.
Each month, the Climate Analysis Center at the National Weather Service headquarters in Camp Springs revises the prediction for the coming 15 months and updates an immediate three-month forecast period. The results are sent to the regional centers for local distribution.
The system started in January; the second forecast on Feb. 16 covered March-April-May. Each 90-day update also covers the long-range ``seasonal'' outlook through the same period in 1996, Rodenhuis said.
Here are parts of this year's probable March-May weather outlook:
``Warmer-than-normal conditions are expected in the West, extreme northern Plains and in the mid-Atlantic states. Cooler-than-normal conditions are expected from Texas to Georgia.
``Southern Alaska will be warm and wetter than normal, while the continental U.S. will be wet from the desert Southwest to the south-central states and Appalachians.''
What will it be like a year from now, in March 1996? MEMO: Related stories on page A6.
FOR CLIMATE UPDATES
Monthly updates on the National Weather Service's long-lead climate
outlooks are available to mid-Atlantic users from the Southeast Regional
Climate Center, 1201 Main St., Suite 1100, Columbia, S.C.
The center's telephone number is (803) 737-0800. The fax number is
(803) 785-9080. Updates are usually complete by the 16th of each
month.
More information also is available on the World Wide Web of the
Internet computer network. The address is:
http://nic.fb4.noaa.gov
Or a link is available on the Local News page of the Pilot Online, at
the address:
http://www.infi.net/pilot/
KEYWORDS: WEATHER CLIMATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE by CNB