THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Saturday, March 11, 1995 TAG: 9503100073
SECTION: DAILY BREAK PAGE: E1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY ED MILLER, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: Long : 108 lines
WHEN MAJOR LEAGUE baseball struck out, one of the runners left stranded was the baseball card industry.
After years of boom times, the card market already was reeling from the effects of overproduction. Many card sets issued in recent years have held their value about as well as the Mexican peso.
Then came the strike, a brushback pitch that sent the card industry sprawling.
``The market has taken a hit, big-time,'' said Bryan Dunn, manager at Home Run Sports Cards in Virginia Beach.
The first sets of '95 cards arrived in the stores in December. That's where most of them remain.
``Fans have gotten to the point where they're backing off on their purchases,'' said Ted Taylor, a spokesman for Fleer, one of the major players in the industry. ``Basically, fans are angry at the players. It's a way to show their anger, at least to a point.''
Anticipating the fan backlash, the major card companies drastically cut production of their '95 sets. At Topps, a company spokesman said the total print run for the season's first two series was the smallest since 1965, when kids still put cards in the spokes of their bike wheels.
Upper Deck cut production of its ``Collector's Choice'' series by 75 percent compared to last year. Production of its regular series was down two-thirds, said spokesman Rich Bradley.
At Fleer and Donruss, it's the same story.
If there's a silver lining, it's that for the first time in years, the market isn't flooded with new products. While that's bad for industry revenues, it's good for collectors.
``From a standpoint of collectibility, this is probably the best year in over a decade,'' said Donruss spokesman Vince Nauss.
Fleer's Taylor agrees.
``Those people who are astute enough to buy ('95 cards) and squirrel them away are probably going to come out way ahead,'' he said.
Hard-core collectors will always buy. And the new cards of certain players - Frank Thomas, Ken Griffey Jr., Cal Ripken - remain in demand.
But because companies have started issuing cards nearly year round, if the strike continues and the season starts with replacement players, the industry's big boys will be confronted with a decision they would rather not have to make: Should they issue replacement-player cards or pretend the scabs don't exist?
Spokesmen for Topps and Donruss say their companies have no plans to issue replacement-player cards. Spokesman for Fleer and Upper Deck say that although they don't think there will be much of a market for the cards if the strike drags on, it's something they'll have to look at.
``Plain and simple, it's hero worship,'' said Upper Deck's Bradley. ``People will buy cards of players they're familiar with.''
And that doesn't include the plumber playing third for the Padres.
Fleer's Taylor thinks a smaller card company, one without an agreement with the major league players association, might take a flier on replacement-player cards. After all, they could be a curiosity for collectors.
But the big boys, for little gain, would run the risk of alienating their cash cows, the players.
``Why tick off the players association?'' Taylor said.
Still, if they don't issue replacement cards, what will the companies issue?
Brian Bigelow, store manager and appraiser for Candl Coins and Stamps in Virginia Beach, thinks market pressures could cause at least one of the big companies to cross the picket line, so to speak.
``They'll all have to do something to generate new product or they'll lose their market,'' Bigelow says.
Not too long ago, Topps had a virtual monopoly on the industry and the secondary market in sports cards was basically non-existent.
But in 1979, price guides started appearing. In 1981, Fleer and Donruss won an antitrust suit and with it the right to produce their own cards.
With competition came innovation, and increased production. The big companies now issue sets at different points in the season. A typical year might go like this:
Start with a basic set that is available in time for Christmas. Follow that with a ``premium'' or ``up market'' set in early spring. Next, issue an updated basic set with new player pictures, taken in spring training - those are the sets that are in danger of being snuffed out by the strike. Then, if you're really ambitious, toss in a late-season set. Sprinkle all the sets with special cards that are intended to be collectible.
Companies have followed that basic formula for years. And while the market scarfed up all the cards it could through most of the 1980s, in recent years there's simply been too much cardboard, too little demand. Certain sets that went for $50 a few years ago can now be had in shops like Candl's for $5.
For people who bought cards as an investment, it's been disenchanting, to say the least.
``People were already starting to back off,'' Bigelow said. ``It's a little more complex than just saying the strike is killing it.''
Bigelow, who has been in the business since 1979, has tried to hold on to his market niche by specializing in older and hard-to-find cards. It's a segment that's still doing well, because while Mickey Mantle and Whitey Ford might have gone on an occasional bender, they never went out on strike.
``People will buy as much old stuff as you can sell them,'' Taylor said.
Certainly there's some nostalgia driving that demand but also some economic common sense. As Bigelow puts it: ``With Michael Jordan cards, every one that's produced is hoarded somewhere. Mickey Mantle cards are finite in supply.''
So at least until the strike ends, old is the way to go. But if you can't afford that 1955 Al Kaline, there are alternatives.
``Basketball card sales have been tremendous'' Dunn said. ``Thank God for players like Shaq, (Anfernee) Hardaway and Grant Hill.'' ILLUSTRATION: Color photos of baseball cards
by CNB