THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Wednesday, May 3, 1995 TAG: 9505030558
SECTION: SPORTS PAGE: C1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY TOM ROBINSON, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: Long : 126 lines
Jim Keller has never been to Harbor Park. He knows nothing about its dimensions, its winds, its river beyond rightfield.
Still, Keller, who crunches numbers in Boston for Howe Sportsdata, says the following with confidence: the Norfolk Tides play in the toughest place to hit in the International League, among the toughest in Triple-A baseball.
Harbor Park is a pitcher's paradise that will almost surely lower the earned-run average of anybody who hurls a ball there.
``Norfolk could have the worst pitchers year in and year out, but it's always going to be among the best team ERAs because it's the best pitcher's park,'' Keller says. ``Fairly certainly you can say it's a tough park to hit in and score runs in. It's definitely a pitcher's park.''
The Tides, in fact, were 67-75 last year but had the league's second-best ERA with a staff of middling talent - just four of those 21 pitchers are currently in the major leagues.
As vice president for the minor leagues' official statistician, Keller comes by his opinion as you might expect: with percentages and decimal points.
Using accepted formulas of baseball stat mavens, Keller has calculated that 2-year-old Harbor Park has had the league's greatest negative impact on offense - runs scored, batting average and home runs - over the last two seasons.
Ottawa Stadium closely trails Harbor Park, while Pawtucket's cozy McCoy Stadium is where a hitter wants to be.
By measuring these ``park effects'' - comparing the total offense of both teams in home games and road games - Keller's numbers say Harbor Park has had a 10.2-percent drag on runs scored and has lowered batting averages by 3.7 percent and home runs by a whopping 21.1 percent.
In the last two years, only Vancouver of the Pacific Coast League has been a harder Triple-A park in which to score. Harbor Park was third-toughest on averages and tied for third-toughest for home runs. Buffalo's Pilot Field was the hardest in which to hit a home run.
For instance, say a Tide batted .300 with 20 home runs last season. Had Harbor Park been a neutral park, with no positive or negative effect on offense, that season would have graded out even better: .311 and 24 home runs, based on Harbor Park's two-year rating.
In McCoy Stadium, though, where averages were influenced over the last two years by a positive 3 percent and home runs 45 percent, .300 and 20 works out to a less impressive .291 and 11.
Keller calculates park effects as a service to baseball executives, trade magazines and Rotisserie players. ``You're factoring out what effect a park has on players and team statistics'' to facilitate player comparisons and projections, he says.
Ironically, Harbor Park bucked its reputation during the Tides' first homestand this season. In seven games, total run, average and home-run numbers are up. However, for some reason, Harbor Park's notorious crosswind that blows from right toward the leftfield corner has been present for only one of those games. Mostly, the air was calm or the flags rippled out to center or right-center.
That supports Tides manager Toby Harrah's initial impression: ``I think this is a good hitter's park.''
However, the first three games of this homestand were more like it. The wind blew hard to left and the Tides and Charlotte combined for one home run, 13 runs and a .247 average.
``When that wind's coming in from rightfield, you've really got to hit it a ton to get it out of here,'' says pitcher Dave Telgheder, who has pitched at Harbor Park the last two seasons. ``I've heard a lot of guys who've never played here before say, `Oh, that ball's way out,' and I think, `No way.' ''
Harbor Park has the deepest rightfield fence, 338 feet, in the league. It's second-deepest to left, 333, and an above-average 410 to center.
Keller doesn't investigate why ballparks grade out as they do. But it is generally agreed that the wind and expansive outfield allow fielders to run down more fly balls. Enough so that pitchers feel a sense of security.
``When the wind's blowing, there are some situations where, if (the count) is 2-0, you can say, `Here you go,' '' says pitcher Mike Birkbeck, signaling a waist-high pitch.
Says Telgheder: ``You can make a lot of mistakes and get away with it. You don't have to worry too much about the big three-run home run here too much. They're still gonna get hits and nickel and dime you, but you can make more mistakes, especially to lefthanders.''
The numbers are designed to tell about the park, not the team that plays there, Keller says.
For instance, the Tides and their opponents combined for 63 home runs at Harbor Park in each of the first two seasons. When the Tides were on the road, the teams combined for 106 and 123 home runs, respectively.
Similarly, Keller says, ``If Norfolk has five Jose Cansecos, the home run total is going to go up at home, but it should go up on the road, also. The home-run (park) factor should stay the same.''
His calculations aren't flawless, Keller admits, just common and useful measuring sticks. For instance, four of the 10 Tides with the most at-bats last season had better batting averages at home than on the road. However, all hit more home runs away from home.
Overall, though, those 10 players hit 23 points lower at home, with 25 fewer home runs.
Sure, numbers can lie. But Harbor Park has had a way of squeezing out their truth. ILLUSTRATION: Graphic
ROBERT D. VOROS/Staff
UNFRIENDLY CONFINES - FOR HITTERS
SOURCE: Howe Sportsdata
[For complete graphic, please see microfilm]
Graphic
CRUNCHING NUMBERS
Howe Sportsdata does its ballpark effect calculations using
accepted formulas of baseball researchers.
To produce Harbor Park's effect on runs scored, for instance, the
average number of runs per team at Harbor Park is added to the
average number of runs on the road between the Tides and their
opponents.
That number is then divided by the average number of runs on the
road, multiplied by two.
So, using 1994 figures, runs per game per team at Harbor Park was
3.66. Runs per game on the road was 4.82. That sum is 8.48. Divide
that by 9.64 (4.82 X 2) to get the park factor of .880. This means
the Tides and their opponents at Harbor Park last year scored 88
percent of the runs they would have had they played on a neutral
field.
TOM ROBINSON
by CNB