THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Wednesday, July 12, 1995 TAG: 9507110009
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A14 EDITION: FINAL
TYPE: Editorial
LENGTH: Medium: 71 lines
Long-range weather forecasting is even dicier than five-day forecasts. But East Coast and Gulf Coast residents would be foolish to ignore the judgment of a research group at Colorado State University in Fort Collins that the 1995 hurricane season will be bountiful.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami says, and we agree, that the Colorado forecast argues that East Coast and Gulf states' inhabitants should take seriously the center's annual admonition to be ready to cope if hurricanes come their way.
All who could find themselves in hurricanes' path - readers of this newspaper not least among them - should plan now, if they haven't already planned, how they will flee wind and rising water, if need be, and stockpile necessities (such as food, drinking water, batteries) should a hurricane stagger toward them. It would also be prudent to acquire now materials that could be used to shield windows and tie down structures that could be destroyed by heavy winds.
The hurricane season began June 1. Hurricane activity is liveliest in August, September and October. A Category 5 hurricane (peak winds of 155 mph or more) striking Hampton Roads could leave $35 billion in damage in its wake.
The level of hurricane activity has been down for a couple of decades, with some destructive exceptions. But the comparative lull appears to be ending, says the Colorado group. Its assessment is based on a very wet rainy season in the western Sahel region of Africa, a weakening of winds generated along the equator by a pool of warm Pacific water, the behavior of stratospheric winds circling the equator and warmer sea-surface temperatures in the South Atlantic.
Hampton Roads and the Outer Banks are at a high risk for hurricanes. Much building has occurred since Hampton Roads last endured a devastating storm. Category 5 hurricanes are the most savage.
Hurricane Andrew, packing winds that surged up to 175 mph, created the most costly natural disaster in U.S. history. It inflicted $30 billion damage on Southern Florida in 1992 - more than four times the costs run up by Hurricane Hugo in 1989 (Charleston, S.C. bore Hugo's brunt). Category 3 (winds of 111 to 130 mph) and Category 4 (winds of 131 to 155) hurricanes are also to be respected and feared.
Again, although there's no certainty that the 1995 forecast will be on the nose, the Colorado weather team is right far more often than wrong.
Staff writer Steve Stone wrote about the group's leader, William M. Gray, last August. A professor of atmospheric sciences, Dr. Gray predicted that 1994 would be comparatively quiet on the tropical-storm front. It was.
Dr. Gray indicated last summer that 1995 would be different. Now Christopher W. Landsea, one of his researchers, warns of ``a very active season.''
The Colorado team foresees eight Atlantic or Gulf hurricanes and four lesser tropical storms (winds of at least 39 miles an hour).
People unacquainted personally with hurricanes tend to underestimate them. These storms can smash waterfront houses, eliminate beaches, topple great trees and spin off tornados. Many - perhaps most - Hampton Roads inhabitants have never witnessed these phenomena.
That lack of experience can't be helped. But innocence is no excuse for not planning ways to protect one's property. If a hurricane should come, some should head for higher ground while others should be ready to survive handily at home when the power is knocked out, often for days, by breathtaking winds and torrential rain. ILLUSTRATION: Photo
Louisiana house wrecked by Hurricane Andrew (August 1992).
by CNB