THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Sunday, October 15, 1995 TAG: 9510150044
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A23 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY STEVE STONE, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: Medium: 62 lines
Roxanne is acting like Felix's little sister.
Forecast to head west, Roxanne instead turned tail and went east Saturday, strengthened into a hurricane again and could once again menace Mexico's storm-ravaged Yucatan Peninsula.
``It almost has the proverbial mind of its own,'' said Declan Cannon, a meteorologist at The Weather Channel in Atlanta. ``What direction has it not moved yet?''
In truth, it has covered the compass. And, like Felix - which hovered for days off the Virginia and North Carolina coasts this summer - Roxanne has moved little in several days.
At 5 p.m. Saturday, the center of Roxanne was about 270 miles north-northeast of Carmen, Mexico, in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. It was drifting east at about 3 mph, but a turn south is expected by today. Maximum sustained winds increased to 75 mph, and additional strengthening is possible.
``It's been a real interesting tropical system in terms of trying to determine what kind of mechanism will take control and determine where this storm is going,'' Cannon said .
On Friday, the National Hurricane Center had settled on a path that would have brought Roxanne into Mexico's east coast, with the storm ending up northwest of Mexico City by Monday. That forecast was heavily influenced by a cold front moving east over the United States. That system had strong southerly winds along the front.
It was just such a front - minus the strong winds - that hooked Hurricane Opal two weeks ago and sent it into Florida's Panhandle.
In this case, the front was - and still is - expected to bypass Roxanne while the accompanying winds were to push the hurricane west and southwest.
Now, those winds are forecast to steer it south and might tear it up, said Ed Rappaport, a meteorologist at the Hurricane Center in Miami.
``The cold front and associated shearing (from winds blowing south) could disrupt or destroy the low-level circulation in Roxanne,'' Rappaport said. A turn south would bode ill for the hurricane, he added: ``Historically, Atlantic tropical cyclones with a significant southward component have not strengthened.''
That's likely of little solace to residents of the Yucatan, which bore the full force of Roxanne when it first came ashore last week with sustained winds of 115 mph. At least six people were killed, resort areas were heavily damaged and there was extensive flooding and crop damage.
On Saturday, computer models showed the storm looping back into the Bay of Campeche and coming ashore west of Tabasco on Monday.
``But there's a chance, if this system does not turn to the south very shortly, that hurricane warnings may have to be extended along the north side of the Yucatan,'' Cannon said. And, the further east it gets, the greater the chance that Florida - already drenched by numerous tropical systems in the past two months - could yet again get a dousing from Roxanne's rain bands. ILLUSTRATION: Graphic
TRACKER'S GUIDE
[For complete graphic, please see microfilm]
by CNB