THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Friday, December 1, 1995 TAG: 9512010210
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A8 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY STEVE STONE, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: Medium: 72 lines
Whether someone takes a swing at you once or 100 times, what counts is if they land a punch. And so it is with hurricanes.
It only takes one.
That was the warning Thursday from the nation's leading prognosticator of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic as he issued his forecast for the 1996 season.
``At this point, we're seeing a season with considerably less activity than what occurred in 1995 but considerably more active than the hurricane seasons of 1991 through 1994,'' said Professor William Gray - who correctly warned last November that this year would be much busier than normal.
Gray, a professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University, is predicting eight tropical storms next season. Of those, five should become hurricanes and two should grow into intense storms. That's roughly half as busy as this season, which closed Thursday as the second most active on record.
``We'll see less activity next year compared to 1995, but that doesn't mean we won't see damage from the storms that do occur,'' Gray warned Thursday.
After all, even a quiet year can serve up disaster. For instance, 1992 was below normal. But it brought Hurricane Andrew, a monster that wrecked South Florida and became the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history.
This year, of 19 tropical storms, 11 became hurricanes; five turned into intense storms.
One major storm - Opal - hit the U.S. mainland. Two others, Luis and Marilyn, caused billions of dollars in damage in the northeast Caribbean, particularly the Virgin Islands. The year's death toll was 124 and total damage is estimated at near $10 billion.
Last November, Gray predicted a dozen tropical storms and called for eight to become hurricanes. In a final forecast issued in early August, he upped the ante to 16 storms and nine hurricanes.
``When we first issued our forecast, many people thought we had gone too high,'' Gray recalled Thursday. ``As it turns out, we didn't go high enough.''
Gray and his research team rely on five primary factors in making the forecast. They include El Nino, a warm Pacific ocean current; weather conditions in west Africa, including rainfall, surface temperature and barometric pressure; and winds at several levels in the upper atmosphere.
Next year will be ``more typical in that some of the factors are conducive for hurricane activity, while others will act to thwart hurricane formation,'' Gray said.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Gray will update his forecast in April, June and August. ILLUSTRATION: Graphic
A HURRICANE SEASON MORE LIKE NORMAL
Prof. William M. Gray is forecasting a more normal hurricane
season next year. This year was the busiest since 1933.
Historical Predicted Actual
Forecast
average for 1995 for 1995 for
1996
Named storms 9.3 16 19 8
Named storm days 46.0 65 121 40
Hurricanes 5.7 9 11 5
Hurricane days 23.0 30 62 20
Intense hurricanes 2.1 3 5 2
Intense hurricane days 4.5 5 11.5 5
Net tropical activity 100% 130% 235% 85%
SOURCE: Colorado State University. by CNB