THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Tuesday, January 23, 1996 TAG: 9601230253
SECTION: LOCAL PAGE: B1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY SCOTT HARPER, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: Medium: 90 lines
A leading crab scientist in Virginia criticized a federal study Monday that concludes a recent decline in Chesapeake Bay blue crabs is just another historical blip with no links to overfishing.
Rom Lipcius, a professor and researcher at the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, said the new study contains ``gross inconsistencies'' and ``promotes a false optimism'' about the health of the most important seafood source in the Bay.
``At this time we cannot agree with their conclusions,'' he said. ``We think there's various levels of concerns which should require us to be careful with this resource.''
Lipcius will make his case today before the Virginia Marine Resources Commission, a regulatory board scheduled to vote on a package of crab protections that include a freeze on commercial crabbing licenses in 1996 and a ban on catching pregnant female crabs on the verge of giving birth.
Virginia totaled its lowest hard crab harvest in 36 years in 1995, according to catch projections. Through surveys and sampling, Lipcius has determined that stocks in the lower Bay, especially adult females, are ``at a low level of abundance'' and vulnerable to collapse in the event of an environmental catastrophe, such as a hurricane or a chemical spill.
The commission also will consider a weaker set of restrictions offered by seafood merchants and watermen, who believe that crab stocks are simply experiencing a natural down-cycle, like an ebbing tide that will inevitably swell again.
Their opinion is now supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's newly released study, which compiled historical data and used computer models to craft the first comprehensive stock assessment of blue crabs throughout the Bay, said M. Elizabeth Gillelan, director of NOAA's Chesapeake Bay office.
``We're confident with the results at this point,'' said Gillelan, who will formally present the findings to commission members today in Newport News.
Gillelan cautioned that her office still endorses additional conservation measures for crabs, even though NOAA research found no remarkable population decline.
Likewise, Virginia's director of fisheries, Jack Travelstead, said the study does not dissuade him from supporting the four-point package of crab protections under consideration today.
Travelstead said he believes the report is not inconsistent with what he and his staff have been saying for months about the crab dilemma - that the population is not near a collapse, as some have alleged, but still needs additional safeguards to ``provide some stability.''
Like Lipcius, Travelstead said he fears NOAA's research will be used as ammunition by merchants and watermen, who oppose new regulations that they say would constrain a trade already overburdened by government rules.
Watermen stress that Virginia imposed seven new restrictions in late 1994, and that judging by decreased harvests this year, the limits are working.
Gillelan said the poor harvest was ``basically an anomaly,'' due in part to high salinity in the lower Bay, which chased crabs into less salty tributaries and kept them north in Maryland.
In criticizing the federal study, Lipcius said federal researchers used ``a totally different analysis'' than his ecologically based surveys. He said the study did not recognize what he calls ``a plain historical fact'' - that watermen must use more pots to catch the same number of crabs each day.
They need more pots, Lipcius said, because there are fewer crabs in the Bay.
``The average pot caught about 300 pounds of crabs in 1960, and only about 100 pounds in 1995,'' he said. ``I don't see how they can refute that.''
The Chesapeake Bay Foundation, an environmental group that led the charge for new crab protections last year, had similar misgivings with the study.
``Because of the vast uncertainty in many of the underlying assumptions of the models that are used in the blue crab stock assessment,'' wrote Rob Brumbaugh, a fisheries scientist at the foundation, ``it is extremely unwise to base management decisions solely on that assessment without regard to other data and anecdotal information available.'' ILLUSTRATION: B\W Photo
Some seafood merchants and watermen say crab stocks are simply
experiencing a natural down-cycle, a view supported by a new federal
study.
Color graphic by the Virginian-Pilot
Virginia Hard-Shell Blue Crab Landings
(in Millions of Pounds)
For copy of Graphic, see microfilm
KEYWORDS: BLUE CRAB by CNB