THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Friday, January 26, 1996 TAG: 9601260504
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY TONY WHARTON, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: Long : 152 lines
The results of an unusual poll, one in which people get to change their minds, showed that Americans do feel differently about the issues when they have the time to become informed and the opportunity to talk with each other, the poll's creator said Thursday.
It also showed skepticism about the idea of a flat tax, cautious support for international military forces to address trouble spots, and increased political self-confidence by those who took the poll.
``If you believe in democracy, and some people don't, then you have to listen to the voice of the people,'' said James Fishkin, a University of Texas-Austin government professor who created this ``poll with a human face.'' He added, ``Well, never before have we had a national random sample, statistically representing the whole country, and changing its mind.''
Last weekend, eight years after conceiving the idea, Fishkin brought together 459 Americans for three days in Austin, Texas. They discussed the issues, came up with questions, and asked them of several presidential candidates.
Before and after the event, they also took identical polls to see how it might have changed their views.
Fishkin was upbeat, even boisterous, at a news conference in Washington on Thursday.
Asked about criticism that the gathering was ``artificial'' in the sense that those citizens would otherwise never have come together to discuss the issues, he said, ``What's artificial in my view is the concocted world of sound bites and attack ads.
``Anybody who listened to those group discussions, that's the real world of politics. Any way that it is different from the conventional, it is an improvement.''
Fishkin said the poll, conducted by the National Opinion Research Center of the University of Chicago, showed that average Americans' views on the issues ``are coherent. They represent a good deal of common sense, and people bringing their life experiences to bear.''
Some of the poll's major changes include:
Despite an appearance by satellite by presidential candidate Steve Forbes, the chief proponent of a flat tax rate for all, support for the idea dropped from 43.5 percent before the convention to 29.8 percent after.
With reservations, participants agreed that the United States should work in cooperation with other countries to address trouble spots, and the feeling strengthened: Before the convention, about 72 percent supported that policy, and afterward about 82 percent did.
People felt more confident about their role in politics after the convention: Before, 41 percent said they had opinions about politics worth listening to, and afterward, 68 percent thought so.
Some members of the media covering the release of the poll results tried to figure out whether it showed the public moving toward the political left, right or center, but the findings appeared to defy any such label. The positions outlined were complex.
Participants supported a government ``safety net'' for the poor, but they also wanted to make able-bodied welfare recipients work.
They did not want the United States to ignore problems in other parts of the world, but they did want the nation to take resources once needed for the Cold War and apply them to domestic problems.
There was general agreement that the rich should pay more taxes, but only a little more, not a lot.
Fishkin said this didn't surprise him.
``I think the results don't show any consistent liberal or conservative change because `liberal-conservative' is an oversimplification,'' he said. ``Ordinary people don't talk about liberal or conservative, they talk about family income not keeping up, whether we should have forces abroad, and what we should do about welfare.''
He has not convinced everyone, however.
Political analysts and some other pollsters said Fishkin's experiment is only that, and does not reflect on the political campaigns or the state of the nation.
Their chief spokesman has become Everett C. Ladd, executive director of the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, who called the convention ``dubious democracy'' in an article published in December.
Thursday, Ladd said the poll results did not change his mind. He did not see the convention himself, but sent two graduate students to observe.
Ladd said, ``You take a certain group, bring them to one place at one point in time, subject them to certain small group interactions, supply them with what is inevitably a partial picture of the issues, ask them particular questions. At the end you've got how one group under one set of circumstances answered the questions.
``As long as you don't reach farther than that and say it's the country at large, fine.''
Fishkin says there were many benefits from the convention beyond the poll. For instance, he said, people discovered they could talk about the issues.
``This may sound corny, but the atmosphere in the small groups was one of mutual respect,'' he said. ``People were surprised that they could discuss politics without insulting each other. They had the impression from the media that discussing politics was like mud wrestling.'' MEMO: PBS said more complete results of the poll should be available today on
the network's World Wide Web site, at http://www.pbs.org/results.
RESULTS
Percentage supporting the flat tax:
Before 43.5%
After 29.8%
Percentage who feel the American family's biggest problem is
pressures from the economy:
Before 35.5%
After 50.7%
Percentage who felt their opinions about politics were worth
listening to:
Before 41%
After 68%
Those who agreed or strongly agreed that ``the average worker does
not receive a fair day's pay for a fair day's work'':
Before 59.4%
After 75%
Those who believe the government should let each person get ahead on
his own in the economy:
Before 60.1%
After 49.9%
Those who believe the government should ensure there are good jobs
and that everyone has a good standard of living:
Before 30.9%
After 43.4%
Those who feel the American family's biggest problem is the breakdown
of traditional values:
Before 57.6%
After 47.7%
Those who thought making it harder to get a divorce might be useful:
Before 36.1%
After 56.7%
Those who believed the U.S. should work in cooperation with other
countries to address trouble spots around the world:
Before 72%
After 82%
Those who said we are spending the right amount on foreign aid:
Before 26%
After 41%
TV COVERAGE
WHRO, the local PBS affiliate, will air a 90-minute program on the
convention tonight at 9.
KEYWORDS: NATIONAL ISSUES CONVENTION by CNB