The Virginian-Pilot
                             THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT 
              Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: Monday, April 1, 1996                  TAG: 9603290028
SECTION: FRONT                    PAGE: A6   EDITION: FINAL 
TYPE: Editorial 
                                             LENGTH: Short :   50 lines

VIRGINIA'S ECONOMIC FORECAST CLOUDY, CHANCE OF PAIN

Be careful what you wish for might be the title of a 1995 census update. Many Virginians have wished for less government, and in the past few years they've gotten it - in the form of fewer government jobs, contributing to falling median income for the state.

The income decline is dramatic. Between 1992 and 1994, household income in Virginia dropped by $2,702 on average - from $40,349 to $37,647. That's a 6.7 percent decline at a time when national household income was virtually unchanged.

Virginia, despite a rhetorical aversion to the federal government, has prospered because its share of well-paid federal jobs has long been out of proportion to its population. The Washington suburbs are one big reason; another is the military might and shipbuilding prowess of Hampton Roads.

Those who prosper by the government suffer by its downsizing, of course. And that's been Virginia's recent fate. Newport News Shipbuilding, once the state's largest employer, alone has cut 12,000 jobs since 1992. About 7,000 federal civilian jobs have been lost between 1992 and 1995, and 12,500 military jobs have disappeared in the same period.

The trend is expected to continue. Forecasts call for another 9,300 federal civilian jobs to vanish from 1996 to 1998. Another 14,800 military jobs could go. And those numbers don't include federal workers who live in Virginia but work in the District of Columbia.

This is a gloomy picture, but it's possible to survive such a change. California involuntarily pioneered. It's been even harder hit by defense and aerospace downsizing in the past five years. But its economy is finally struggling back, according to a Washington Post report, having fundamentally restructured. In place of the old leaders are computer software, electronics manufacturing, engineering consulting and exporting.

Under Gov. George Allen, Virginia has aggressively recruited new businesses, but it must do more to convert skills formerly applied to defense to new tasks. There are also opportunities to further capitalize on tourism, to increase cargo handling and to attract retirees.

But for Hampton Roads to improve its prospects, the cities of Hampton Roads are going to have to cooperate. The news in the census report of vanishing federal jobs and shrinking household income ought spur to the region to action and innovation. by CNB