THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Thursday, April 4, 1996 TAG: 9604040325
SECTION: LOCAL PAGE: B3 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY STEVE STONE, STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: ORLANDO LENGTH: Medium: 83 lines
Some people who wanted to get out couldn't. Others who should have fled didn't. And in both cases, the results could have been disastrous as hurricanes bore down on the U.S. coast last year.
That was the message Wednesday as participants at the National Hurricane Conference reviewed last year's hurricane season - the worst since 1933 - and its aftermath. And one prime concern emerging here is that evacuations in advance of hurricanes Felix and Opal didn't work well.
Luckily, Felix never came ashore on North Carolina's Outer Banks, sparing those who did not heed evacuation orders. And while thousands of people were stranded in inland traffic jams as they fled Florida's Panhandle, Opal had lost some of its strength before landfall and beach residents had gotten out.
Planners and researchers worry, however, that the stage is being set for disaster through poor evacuation coordination and evidence that a lot of people wait until it's simply too late to get out safely.
On the Outer Banks, a survey after Felix showed that just under half of the people who live along the beach or in areas subject to flooding got out when told to do so, said researcher E.J. Baker.
``A majority, even if they thought they were being ordered to leave, didn't,'' he said. ``I was surprised the evacuation number wasn't way higher than it was.'' In comparison, he said 85 percent of Florida beach residents obeyed evacuation orders before Opal hit.
Baker, a professor of geography at Florida State University, coordinated surveys of more than 800 Outer Banks residents to see what they did - or didn't do - and why.
Baker's survey did not include tourists, but most of them appeared to heed evacuation orders, local officials said last year.
If officials want to improve compliance with evacuation orders, they may have to get personal, Baker said. Two suggestions: knocking on people's doors or, as some communities now do, installing a computer system that can call all residents and deliver a recorded message urging that they leave.
In Opal, ``people left too late,'' said Don Lewis, a researcher who has studied traffic counts and flow in the hours before the hurricane hit Florida's Panhandle.
``They went to bed with a relatively weak hurricane that was not moving very fast,'' said Robert Burpee, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami. But while they slept, the storm exploded in strength and sped up.
As a result, thousands of coastal residents woke to warnings to get out immediately. Many became stranded in traffic jams. And Baker's surveys show about 10 percent who tried to flee gave up and returned to their homes.
Another problem with Opal was that it seemed no one was paying attention to the storm the day before it hit. Instead, the nation's focus had turned to the verdict in the O.J. Simpson trial.
With the storm steering north in the Gulf of Mexico and presumably threatening the U.S. coast, Burpee said he showed up for work expecting to find the usual army of TV crews and reporters at the Hurricane Center. There wasn't a camera in sight, however.
``That was quite a shock,'' Burpee said.
And that lack of media interest made matters more difficult when it came time to order evacuations. A lot of Florida Panhandle residents were simply caught off guard.
``The amazing thing was that even though storm surge caused vast damage, there were no deaths related to the surge,'' Burpee said.
The nine deaths attributed to Opal all occurred inland with most the result of people being hit by falling trees.
In Opal's aftermath, researchers are learning a lot that may prove helpful in managing future evacuations, Lewis said.
Thanks to dozens of traffic-counting monitors in place throughout the Florida Panhandle, a clear picture of traffic flows has emerged.
Lewis found that too many people tried to use the interstate system, contributing to the traffic jams, while traffic remained comparatively light on some state highways.
Improved communication would help get people onto open roads and off overused ones, he said.
Lewis urged communities to better coordinate their traffic plans and to use existing technology - highway traffic counters and cameras - to monitor flows and be ready to respond to tie-ups.
``I think we can do a lot better job in the future managing our traffic and getting people where they want to go,'' Lewis said. by CNB