THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Tuesday, May 28, 1996 TAG: 9605240025
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A14 EDITION: FINAL
TYPE: Editorial
LENGTH: 51 lines
The rise of Republicanism in the South is, by now, an old story. But proof of the GOP ascent continues to appear in new forms.
Take, for instance, the current battle to replace GOP presidential contendor Bob Dole as Senate majority leader. Battling for the honor are two Mississippi Republicans: Sens. Trent Lott and Thad Cochran. One or the other will join House Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., to give both chambers of Congress Southern Republican leadership, a historic first.
Consider, too, a recent analysis by the Cook Political Report, a Washington-based enterprise that tracks congressional races nationwide. There are 49 congressional seats in the Deep South states of North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana. The Cook Report said that 20 of the seats are either solidly Democratic or Republican.
Fourteen of the ``solid'' seats are held by white Republicans; the other six by black Democrats. In fact, the group labeled the chances of only one white Democrat as even ``likely'' in those states.
The Cook Report saw the prospects for Virginia Democrats as somewhat brighter, but the overall pattern held true here as well. The analysis put five of the state's 11 congressional districts solidly in Republican or Democrat hands. ``Solid'' for the Republicans are the 1st District, represented by Rep. Herb Bateman; the 6th, Bob Goodlatte; the 7th, Tom Bliley; and the 10th, Frank Wolf. Only one district was rated solid for the Democrats; the 3rd, held by Rep. Bobby Scott, who is the state's only black congressman.
The report ranked four other Virginia districts as ``likely'' Democratic, including the 2nd, represented by Owen Pickett, and the 4th, represented by Norman Sisisky. It listed Northern Virginia's 11th as likely Republican, and the 5th District, where Republican George Landrith and Democrat Virgil Goode will square off, as ``a tossup.''
In part, the cementing of majority-white Republican districts and majority-black Democratic districts reflects the political decision to redistrict minority voters into voting blocks. The creation of majority-black districts such as Virginia's 3rd has boosted black representation in Congress, but has also removed dependable Democratic voters from the districts of many white Democratic incumbents.
For the nation, there are at least two likely consequences of the GOP march to political dominance in the South. First, with Southerners running the show, Congress is likely to become a more conservative place.
And second, so long as Democrats need to crack the GOP's electoral college stranglehold on the South to have any chance of winning a presidential election, either moderates or Southerners or both are likely to wind up on the party's national tickets.
Just ask Bill Clinton or Al Gore the value of speaking with a drawl. by CNB