THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Saturday, June 1, 1996 TAG: 9606010208
SECTION: LOCAL PAGE: B1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY STEVE STONE, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: 98 lines
May's madness is over. Now hurricane season begins.
Despite some record-setting high temperatures, May actually ended up cooler than normal in Hampton Roads, according to the National Weather Service.
As the final hours ticked away Friday, the month's average high settled at 73 degrees, compared with the normal of 76.
``It was a month of extremes,'' said Scott Valone, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Wakefield. In one four-day period, temperatures shifted 52 degrees.
The end of the month also heralds the start of the 1996 Atlantic hurricane season - one which so far promises to be busier than normal but not as productive as last year. Hurricane season runs from today through the end of November.
There was little brewing in the tropics on the eve of hurricane season, however, said John Hope, a hurricane specialist at The Weather Channel in Atlanta.
``History tells us that in June we are not likely to have anything develop,'' Hope said. ``It's far too early.'' Yet, he notes, last year, ``the season started right on time with Allison forming on the 2nd of June.''
Since 1886, there have been 59 tropical storms or hurricanes during May. All formed in and affected the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico; there were no Atlantic monsters.
The busiest part of the season, based on the past century, occurs between mid-August and late September. The peak is Sept. 10.
Last year was the second busiest on record, with 19 named storms running through the alphabet to Tanya. Before 1995, and since the tradition of naming storms began in the 1950s, no season had even reached the letter N.
The busiest season on record was 1933, before storms were named. That year saw 21 tropical storms and hurricanes.
The nation's leading hurricane forecaster, Professor William M. Gray, expects this year to be busier than normal but no match for last year. But then, all it takes is one destructive monster storm to make a season memorable.
Gray and his research group of atmospheric scientists at Colorado State University issued a forecast this spring calling for 11 tropical storms with seven attaining hurricane strength with winds in excess of 74 mph. Two of those hurricanes will become major storms with wind speeds of at least 111 mph, capable of significant damage if they come ashore.
Gray admits he's taking a risk with that forecast and going against the history he studies so closely.
``It's very unusual to have an above-average year in terms of hurricane activity following a year that is one of the most active on record,'' Gray said. ``Usually in a year that follows one of these very active seasons, we see less than average hurricane activity.''
His forecast formula considers history, but is more closely focused on a variety of present weather patterns including Pacific water temperatures, prevailing wind patterns, and rainfall in Western Africa.
On Thursday he'll offer a revised forecast accounting for all the weather data gathered this spring.
And it has been an unusual spring with heat waves and late-season snow storms keeping meteorologists around the country busy.
The roller-coaster temperatures hit Hampton Roads at mid-month. On the 15th, the mercury dipped to a low of 46 at Norfolk International Airport. But, only four days later, the region was roasting in a summer-like spell of temperatures in the mid-90s.
Although it is not rare for the mercury to get into the 90s in May, three consecutive days of 90-plus weather caught just about everyone off guard.
Virginia Power, which usually finds that May is a safe month to do routine maintenance, was left with its wattage down when a major transformer in Virginia Beach failed on the 19th while other equipment was out of service.
The utility was forced to initiate rotating blackouts affecting 30,000 customers in northern Virginia Beach until the failed transformer was repaired.
The month's high came the next day, and fell just two degrees shy of the century mark. The high of 98 on the 20th broke the record of 96 for the date, set in 1877.
A high of 94 the next day tied the record for that date, also set in 1877.
Then the mercury plunged 30 degrees with a low of 64 on the 22nd and a high of 77.
It warmed back up for a few more days, but by month's end, a week of cooler than normal weather set in. That cleared the beaches over the Memorial Day weekend and helped bring the month's average high temperature down. Still, the month's average low temperature of 58 was actually a degree above normal.
Valone isn't surprised that many people may remember May as having been hot.
``People tend to focus on the extremes, those mid- to upper-90s, rather than on those days when when we were in the mid- to lower-60s,'' he said.
No severe storms hit Hampton Roads, although one line of thunderstorms on the 11th produced wind gusts up to 60 mph from Richmond to Virginia Beach and knocked down trees around Williamsburg.
The high winds also pushed the anchored Panamanian freighter Balsa 31 aground near Newport News Shipbuilding, leaving one of its anchors entangled on a 90-foot aid-to-navigation tower.
``It was just dumb luck that the most intense thunderstorms tended to pass to the northwest or the south in North Carolina,'' Valone said.
Precipitation for the month was 3.59 inches, which was only slightly below the 3.75 inches that typically fall in May.
With the books closed on May, Valone said the weather service now focuses on hurricane season. And, he promises, ``We're ready.'' by CNB