THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Friday, June 14, 1996 TAG: 9606140014
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A19 EDITION: FINAL
TYPE: Opinion
SOURCE: KEITH MONROE
LENGTH: 74 lines
Bob Dole can win the presidency if he talks to the American people about their real worries and offers real solutions. But the campaign strategy he's apparently adopted is a giant step in the wrong direction.
According to The Weekly Standard, a conservative magazine that specializes in the inside baseball of politics, Dole intends to model his campaign on the 1988 George Bush race against Michael Dukakis. Those with long memories and strong stomachs will recall that was the flag factory, Willie Horton, don't Worry, Be Happy campaign - long on demagoguery and short on substance.
The Dole campaign has identified six hot-button issues it will push again and again until the electorate, like Pavlov's dogs, salivates. Reporter Fred Barnes says campaign manager Scott Reed has told him the Dole agenda for America will boil down to ``a tax cut, ending affirmative action, opposition to gay marriage, cutting wasteful spending, real welfare reform and crime.''
This is the kind of cynical pandering that makes many Americans hate politics. A serious debate on how a country addicted to entitlements can balance the budget would be welcome. But promising to cut taxes by cutting wasteful spending is sheer fantasy.
Simple math suggests that balancing the budget and providing tax cuts is possible only if extremely painful cuts in entitlements or defense or both is part of the deal. If Dole is prepared to put the facts about how to do that on the table, good. But, so far, it looks like the standard campaign shell game.
Crime is largely a state and local matter and should stay that way. Does a conservative like Dole who is all for returning power to the states really favor federalizing more crimes and more law enforcement? That would be a mistake. And if he doesn't favor such steps, then law and order are probably only on his presidential agenda because they play well in Peoria.
Speaking of demagoguery, opposition to gay marriage and affirmative action undoubtedly gratify some segments of the electorate, but they are hardly bedrock issues on which to build a presidency. And if the Weekly Standard article can be believed, Dole himelf has no interest in the issues. When urged to make speeches about gay marriage, he expressed doubt that it was an issue anyone was interested in. He's quoted as saying: ``Maybe I'm too old. Maybe I'm a fossil. Maybe I come from too small a town.'' Or maybe he's not as cynical as his handlers.
Welfare reform is continuing apace in the states, which is where the Republicans claim it ought to take place. If candidate Dole agrees, there would seem to be little for him to do on the issue other than to act as a cheerleader for the George Allens and Tommy Thompsons of the world.
In short, if Dole follows the campaign strategy outlined - and he seems to be - voters may be forgiven for wondering: Is that all there is? Is that the best agenda a Dole run for the presidency in 1996 can come up with?
What about slow economic growth, the need for a more highly educated work force, the economic anxiety of a middle class whose livelihoods and living standards are threatened by foreign competition, downsizing, restructuring and rising health and higher-education costs? What about the need to train 15-year-olds and retrain 45-years-olds? What about trade and nuclear proliferation? What about the inescapable need to reform Medicare and Social Security before they either go belly up or bankrupt the younger generation?
With all that to worry about, are gay marriage, an end to affirmative action, implausible tax cuts and tough talk on crime really the best Dole can do? If so, the Dole campaign could have the astonishing effect of making President Clinton look like the more fiscally conservative and socially moderate candidate in the race.
Instead of holding Clinton's feet to the fire by talking seriously about serious issues, the Dole strategy of running on superficial appeals to hot-button issues runs the risk of allowing the incumbent to do the same.
Already Clinton is claiming the era of big government is over while promising government handouts that include tax credits for college tuition, tax breaks for families with kids and Medicare money that never ends. Now Dole is replying that he'll provide even bigger tax breaks when unidentified waste is cut, affirmative action is ended and gays can't get married.
It is not shaping up as a campaign to look forward to. MEMO: Mr. Monroe is editor of the editorial page of The Virginian-Pilot. by CNB