THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Thursday, June 27, 1996 TAG: 9606270414
SECTION: BUSINESS PAGE: D1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY MYLENE MANGALINDAN, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: 50 lines
If you ever wanted to see the numbers behind an economic forecast, now you've got your chance.
Old Dominion University's quarterly economic forecast is available on the World Wide Web - even the raw data used to compile the forecasts.
``The number one reason we did this is that we wanted it to be a tool for economic development,'' said Gilbert R. Yochum, chair of the university's Department of Economics, Public Administration and Urban Studies. ``We hope that people who are thinking of moving into the area or business people in the area can access information as they need it.''
The web site displays an array of data: Hampton Roads general cargo tonnage dating from 1989 to the present as well as hotel revenues that date to June 1988.
And if you want to ask questions of the three professors responsible for the forecast, you can find out how to reach them under a section with more information.
The latest version of the forecast is for the third quarter. And for Hampton Roads the signals are mixed. The Old Dominion team - Yochum, Vinod B. Agarwal, an economics professor, and Mohammad Najand, a finance professor - predict slow growth overall, particularly in taxable sales, but steady improvement in tourism and home construction.
The Old Dominion forecast expects tourism activity to remain strong in the third quarter. The College of Business and Public Administration, the department that administers this forecast, predicts that hotel room revenue will increase by 4.1 percent to $155.9 million. Gas prices reached their peak in the second quarter, the report said, and recent declines in retail gas prices should help tourism activity locally, especially because the region is so dependent on visitors who travel here by car.
Port activity will improve compared to the previous year. General cargo tonnage should jump 9.9 percent to 2.3 million due to more shipping lines calling at the port, the forecast said.
The value of single-family housing permits should improve 6.2 percent to $182.9 million. Taxable sales are expected to improve only about 1.1 percent to $3.06 billion.
Unemployment will drop 16.5 percent and employment will improve a mere 0.4 percent. MEMO: ODU ONLINE
WHERE: www.odu.edu/forecast/ or by accessing Old Dominion's homepage
WHAT: ODU's third quarter forecast predicts slow growth for the area,
with tourism and home construction showing the largest gains.
KEYWORDS: ECONOMIC FORECAST by CNB