THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Wednesday, July 10, 1996 TAG: 9607100568
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY STEVE STONE, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: 96 lines
Hopes lessened Tuesday that Hurricane Bertha, a powerful and unusually early Atlantic storm, would completely miss the U.S. mainland.
One computer forecast model places the storm off the Outer Banks by Friday.
``If it continues to move northwest much longer, it's going to be difficult for it to miss the U.S. entirely,'' said John Hope, a senior meteorologist at The Weather Channel in Atlanta.
That marked a big change from 24 hours earlier, when it had appeared Bertha would follow the track of many of last year's hurricanes - turning north and then northeast well offshore.
``It was kind of a surprise to see such a sudden change in the steering flow'' than had been predicted, said Lixion Avila, a hurricane specialist at the Hurricane Center in Miami.
The engine for that track was a developing trough of low pressure along the East Coast.
``But the frontal system is either breaking up or weakening, and the storm doesn't appear to be losing any intensity,'' said Jim Talbot, deputy coordinator of emergency services in Norfolk. ``And it's not even reached the Gulf Stream yet.''
That warm flow of water heading northeast off the U.S. coast often helps sustain and enhance hurricanes that pass over it.
Even if it doesn't strengthen further, ``Bertha is a very large storm - 400 miles across - and even if the eye does not move over us, we could get an impact,'' Talbot said.
``It is further south and west of where Felix was'' last year, Talbot said. ``So when it does take the turn, North Carolina and Virginia are going to be in its way.''
Maximum sustained winds varied between 110 and 115 mph with higher gusts in squalls Tuesday, and there was no evidence to suggest it would weaken.
``This storm may completely miss us,'' said North Carolina emergency management spokesman Tom Ditt. ``It depends on what the weather fronts do. All we're saying is be aware that Bertha is out there and she may come to visit us.''
At 8 p.m., Bertha was 851 miles south/southeast of Cape Hatteras, 943 miles south/southeast of Norfolk and about 115 miles east of San Salvador in the central Bahamas. It wasmoving northwest at 21 mph. Although forecasters still expect a gradual turn to the north, it was expected to continue on its northwest course through this morning. That would bring the center near or just east of the central and northwestern Bahamas.
Bertha - the season's second named storm and its first hurricane - claimed at least four lives in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands and caused widespread damage to homes and other buildings in the Leeward Islands.
A Category 3 storm, Bertha is considered a dangerous hurricane, capable of tearing roofs from houses, kicking up a storm surge of 9 to 12 feet and dumping several inches of rain.
It also is a very large storm with gale-force winds of 39 mph or higher extending out more than 200 miles from its center.
``We are seeing an eye that's fairly broad,'' the crew of an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter plane reported as it pierced Bertha's eye wall Tuesday evening.
``The most remarkable thing about this storm is the wave action it's creating on the surface,'' a lieutenant from the 53rd Reconnaissance Squadron said in a live radio-telephone interview with The Weather Channel. He described strong, high waves.
``We have not seen a great deal of lightning,'' he reported. ``Just great amounts of rain.''
Although not caught off guard, East Coast emergency planners are nonetheless surprised that they are readying for a major storm at this time of year.
``I would think this storm is about 30 days early,'' said Talbot, the deputy coordinator of emergency services. ``It doesn't give me a warm feeling for the remainder of the summer.''
Over the past century, most early season hurricanes have developed in the Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico. Only a handful of those have affected the East Coast. And it's downright rare to have a storm like Bertha form at this time of year off the West African coast.
``We have notified all the city department heads and have a meeting for 11 a.m.'' today to discuss preparations, Talbot said. ``We have notified our emergency preparedness people to be ready to work extra shifts and to prepare their homes and families.''
On North Carolina's Outer Banks - where even the threat of a storm can result in huge financial losses for the tourism industry - planners also were watching and waiting.
The Navy, too, was keeping close tabs on Bertha's progress Tuesday.
Second Fleet spokesman Paul Weishaupt said the word had gone out to ship and unit commanders to make any preparations they needed in case orders come to get ships underway or to fly aircraft to safe areas. ILLUSTRATION: Map
KEN WRIGHT/The Virginian-Pilot
HURRICANE BERTHA
Graphic
STEVE STONE/The Virginian-Pilot
TRACKER'S GUIDE
[For complete graphic, please see microfilm] by CNB