THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Thursday, August 8, 1996 TAG: 9608080003
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A18 EDITION: FINAL
TYPE: Opinion
SOURCE: By MARK J. ROZELL and CLYDE WILCOX
LENGTH: 73 lines
After George Bush's 1992 defeat, many suggested that his candidacy had been harmed by the GOP's alliance with the Christian Right, that ``family values'' night at the Houston convention symbolized what was wrong with the GOP.
Fast forward to the post-1994 elections analyses. According to that round of conventional wisdom, the Christian Right provided the core of GOP grass-roots energy and support. The movement that had been declared a burden on the GOP had become the central source of party energy.
These examples say much about the treatment of the Christian Right. Most observers have little in common with that movement and simply don't understand it. They are too prone to dismiss it as irrelevant, then to overstate its impact.
These mistakes are not new. In the 1970s when the Christian Right was mobilizing, reporters missed the phenomenon. After the 1980 election, they marveled at its sudden national emergence. By the end of the 1980s, they declared the movement on the wane; and after 1992 many said it was finished. By 1994 it was enormously powerful, and now observers are struggling to understand its impact on the Dole-Clinton race.
Since the 1970s, the core of Christian Right support has made up about 10 percent to 15 percent of the population. Despite all the rhetoric about the movement dying at some points and taking over American politics at others, its core of support has remained fairly steady.
The most-egregious error in this election year has been equating Christian Right strength with support for Pat Buchanan. Media reports repeated this error even though social conservatives were divided in their loyalties; in some cases, they favored Dole over Buchanan.
There is evidence that movement activists are increasingly willing to back a mainstream conservative who can win. In that regard, much of the Christian Right has become more pragmatic, willing to compromise and likely to use moderate-sounding rhetoric - in short, more influential not because of sheer numbers but because many members have learned how to play the political game.
Christian Right groups have become effective at building coalitions with secular conservative groups, including anti-tax, pro-gun, right-to-work, English First, anti-immigration and education-reform organizations. Christian Right leaders have signaled a willingness to accept the necessity of compromise and to wait out change. This differs from the conventional wisdom that the Christian Right is politically intolerant and makes uncompromising demands for immediate policy change.
Leaders understand the importance of broadening their agenda to include economic issues as well as abortion and family values. They communicate effectively in the secular language of politics and now appeal to more voters.
If the Christian Right continues to play it smart, its leaders will be more careful about how they pressure Senator Dole on controversial social issues. Because of his advanced age and the importance of his veep selection, movement leaders will focus pressure on Dole in that area instead.
The movement will help Dole by focusing on what they perceive as Clinton's extremism. The Christian Coalition training manual offers advice on handling the abortion issue. It suggests that pro-life candidates should not pose the issue as ``pro-life vs. pro-choice.'' Instead, focus on such ``secondary issues'' as parental notification, taxpayer funding, waiting periods and ``partial birth'' abortions. The public largely supports such ``reasonable restrictions''' meaning that the pro-choice candidate can be tagged with the extremist label by pointing out his or her unwillingness to support popular restrictions. Clinton's veto of the rare abortion procedure opens him up to this charge and bolsters the opposition.
We also anticipate a serious effort to avoid any repeat of ``family values'' night. Dole is correct not to repeat Bush's error by giving in to Buchanan. If Christian social conservatives play it smart and allow Dole to emerge from this convention looking like the leader of a united party, we might have a competitive presidential campaign after all. MEMO: Mark Rozell is associate professor of political science at
American University. Clyde Wilcox is professor of government at
Georgetown University. by CNB