THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Monday, August 12, 1996 TAG: 9608100006
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A6 EDITION: FINAL
TYPE: Editorial
LENGTH: 74 lines
When Frank Sinatra sang ``You're riding high in April, shot down in May,'' he might have been describing the fortunes of the GOP over the past two years. They were conquering heroes in November 1994 when they took over both houses of Congress. Now, they slink into San Diego with their presidential nominee trailing a president they'd left for dead by 15 to 23 points, depending on which poll you listen to.
Congressional Quarterly reports that only three candidates since World War II who were trailing at the convention have come back to win: Truman in 1948, Bush in 1988 and Clinton in 1992.
It can be done, but in one poll an astonishing 63 percent of respondents said Clinton's first term has been a success. Only 30 percent called it a failure.
Bob Dole clearly faces an uphill battle. Part of his problem is the fact that the Gingrich-led revolution of the past two years has spooked a large fraction of the electorate. But Dole's biggest worry may be economic conditions.
Four years ago, according to CBS/New York Times polling, a paltry 21 percent of Americans said the economy was in good shape, and President Bush paid the price. Today, 63 percent of those polled say the economy is in good shape. Since people tend to vote their pocketbooks, this is good news for the president.
But Clinton can't afford complacency. Though voters feel optimistic for the moment, their long-term outlook is less sunny. The same poll found that two-thirds of Americans are worried that the next generation will find it harder to live the American Dream, and almost 60 percent think Clinton is doing too little to help the middle class.
There's an opening there, if Dole can seize it. This week's convention in San Diego may be his last best chance to persuade voters he's got a better idea.
Dole's just announced tax-cutting plan is an obvious effort to do so. But voters can be forgiven for a feeling of deja vu.
During the 1992 presidential campaign, Bill Clinton pledged to cut taxes for the middle class. Once in office he decided that reducing the deficit was more important.
Clinton might respond to Dole's proposed cut by saying, ``Voters were fools to believe me, and they'd be bigger fools to believe him. The deficit is huge!''
Of course he won't. But voters used to hearing every four years about tax cuts that never come to pass may be reluctant to believe the latest promise.
In other pre-convention action, you'd think a self-styled conservative party would be slow to propose quick fixes to the Constitution of the United States. Since the Bill of Rights was adopted, there have been just 17 more amendments over the past 205 years.
That's as it should be. The operating manual for the country shouldn't be tinkered with in response to every passing fancy.
Yet the Republican Platform drafted last week in San Diego calls for no fewer than seven constitutional amendments on hot button issues: abortion, victims' rights, school prayer, a balanced budget, term limits, flag burning and citizenship for children of illegal immigrants. What, no amendments governing women in combat, the United Nations or Goals 2000?
A member of the Colorado delegation to the GOP convention this week will be Chuck Berry. But don't get excited. It's not the ageless rock star but a fellow with the same name who happens to be speaker of the House in the Centennial State.
With friends like Barry Goldwater, patriarch of the modern conservative movement, the Dole campaign hardly needs Democratic enemies. Goldwater was forced to explain last week that he was only joking when he called Bill Clinton a good president with a very good wife. Worse, Goldwater originally said that he'd only vote for his own party's nominee if he was the only candidate running. The Dole camp undoubtedly found old AuH2O's humor knee-slappingly funny.
KEYWORDS: REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION by CNB