THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Thursday, August 29, 1996 TAG: 9608290400
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY STEVE STONE AND CATHERINE KOZAK, STAFF WRITERS
LENGTH: 110 lines
Don't cancel those holiday plans.
While there are three named storms - Edouard, Fran and Gustav - to keep forecasters busy through the Labor Day weekend, it appears the one most likely to affect the mid-Atlantic coast will be steering safely north between the Outer Banks and Bermuda by Sunday.
And the other two storms are far enough away that, even if they eventually come this way, their effects wouldn't be felt until mid-week at the earliest.
It's a forecast that, if it holds, will be good news for surfers and resort merchants alike.
``We're not seeing anything right now that we would construe as a threat to the Southeast U.S.,'' said John Hope, senior meteorologist at The Weather Channel in Atlanta.
Still, the National Hurricane Center wasn't sounding the all-clear just yet, noting that a deviation of just a few miles from the forecast track in the next 24 to 48 hours could steer Hurricane Edouard and its 125 mph sustained winds right at the coast.
With one of the biggest moneymaking weekends just around the bend, merchants are keeping a close eye on Edouard. But there seemed to be few concerns Wednesday.
Hotels at the Virginia Beach Oceanfront were reporting no cancellations as a result of Edouard, although some people have called to check the forecast.
``We've had inquiries, but at this point it's way too premature as there's really no projected warning area,'' said Gary Pfund, general manager of the Holiday Inn-Sunspree Resort at 39th Street and Atlantic Avenue. ``We've had a positive reaction once we've reassured the guests.''
Pfund said most of the inquiries have come from Ohio, Maryland and Pennsylvania residents.
Because of the holiday weekend and the American Music Festival, most hotels in the resort area have imposed a three-night minimum stay, with a 72-hour cancellation policy enforced. Several general managers said the only exception to the policy would be if a hurricane warning were issued for Virginia Beach.
Vacancies were few on Wednesday, and all rooms are expected to be booked by Friday night.
The mood was similar on the Outer Banks.
``My sense is it's unusually quiet,'' said Clarence Skinner of Manteo, chairman of the Dare County Control Group. ``There's not a rush of calls. People seem to be very casual about it. They seem to be comforted that it's forecast to turn north.''
The area was evacuated in mid-July when Hurricane Bertha threatened. With tourists gone for several days, merchants and resort property owners counted losses in the millions of dollars. Yet Bertha went ashore near Wilmington and actually caused little more of a stir on the Outer Banks than does a good northeaster.
Very few cancellations have been made by tourists planning to visit during the Labor Day holiday, innkeepers said.
``It's been very low-key, this time - so far,'' said Sterling Webster, owner and general manager of the Ramada Inn in Nags Head. ``Truthfully, at this time, no one is really making a big deal out of it.''
Webster said other hotel managers and owners at a Wednesday business meeting also said guests with reservations for this weekend don't seem concerned at this point. ``We laughed about it and said, `Here we go again,' '' he said.
This time, some out-of-towners have called to ask about their cancellation policy, said Kim Sink with the Sun Realty rental department.
Sun and the Ramada both will refund money because of hurricanes, but not all Outer Banks rental companies or hotels will give money back if reservations are broken.
But for now, everyone should hold tight with their plans, Skinner advised.
``The storm is dangerous, but it's a long way from us,'' Skinner said Wednesday afternoon. ``I have a high comfort level that it will pass by us far enough offshore that we will not even experience gale-force winds.''
At 5 p.m. Wednesday, Edouard was 300 miles north of San Juan, moving west-northwest near 14 mph. The hurricane is expected to turn toward the northwest today. Maximum sustained winds were near 125 mph, and while no significant change in strength is likely through today, it should be moving into an area with more favorable winds and warmer waters.
``Therefore, the hurricane may regain some intensity,'' said Lixion Avila, a Hurricane Center meteorologist.
Hurricane force winds in excess of 74 mph extend out 105 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or greater extend out up to 200 miles.
If Edouard ends up where the Hurricane Center forecasts it to be by 5 p.m. Friday, it would be centered 227 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras and 319 miles southeast of Norfolk.
``We are expecting to see a turn more to the northwest by Friday, and we expect it will be heading due north then,'' Hope said. ``But there are also some indications it might stall out and hover around for awhile. We'll just have to wait and see.''
Several of last year's storms trekked to the north and northeast between the Virginia and North Carolina coasts and Bermuda last year, each stirring up an onshore flow that brought strong surf and some dangerous tides, but no serious problems.
Edouard would likely do the same if it stays on course, the Hurricane Center said.
In the meantime, the hurricane was by no means alone. Tropical Storm Fran, about 900 miles east-southeast of Edouard, was nearing hurricane strength. And Tropical Depression 6 also intensified Wednesday, becoming Tropical Storm Gustav. It was about 1,300 miles east-southeast of Fran.
``The Atlantic's a very busy place,'' Hope said.
At 5 p.m., Fran was about 500 miles east of the Leeward Islands, moving west-northwest near 18 mph. That motion is expected to continue through today. Maximum sustained winds were near 70 mph, and it may become a hurricane overnight or today. MEMO: Staff writer Lori Denney contributed to this report. ILLUSTRATION: Color photo
ASSOCIATED PRESS
Hurricane Edouard, top, is expected to stay out to sea. Tropical
Storms Fran, bottom, and Gustav are so far away that their effects
wouldn't be felt before the middle of next week. by CNB