THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Wednesday, September 4, 1996 TAG: 9609040402
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY BILL SIZEMORE, STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: NORFOLK LENGTH: 64 lines
Why did Saddam Hussein launch a military assault on a protected Kurdish enclave in northern Iraq, knowing that it might provoke a U.S. response?
The answer lies more in internal Iraqi politics than in any kind of global power struggle, suggests an expert in Mideastern and Persian Gulf studies at Old Dominion University.
Steve Yetiv, an assistant professor of political science who has written a book on the Persian Gulf War, believes that Saddam - five years after suffering a devastating defeat at the hands of the United States and its allies - is acting out of weakness, not strength.
Yetiv also warns against a U.S. overreaction to Saddam's latest military adventure, which he thinks could have the unintended result of strengthening Saddam's archrival, Iran.
This is an ironic case of strange geopolitical bedfellows. Iraq has sided with one of two rival Kurdish factions vying for control in the north. By attacking Iraq, the United States has implicitly lined up with Iran, which has been aiding the other Kurdish faction.
Here's how Yetiv analyzes Saddam's thinking:
``First, in the last three weeks Saddam has faced a number of challenges domestically. Two or three more high-level defectors have left the country, and in addition, reportedly, there was a bomb that just missed Saddam. . . . There are also political opponents of his from Baghdad up there in the north, cooperating with the Kurds. So he's not just killing Kurds, he's also killing his political opponents.
``Secondly, he's always had a problem with the Kurds, since 1977 at least.
``Third, Iran is supporting one of the Kurdish factions, and he does not want Iran to gain influence inside Iraq.''
Saddam's thrust into the north has been pictured as a test of U.S. credibility. That is a consequence of it, Yetiv said, ``but that's not his goal. He's trying to maintain control over his own country. If the U.S. starts attacking Iraq, he becomes stronger domestically. He can paint it in the Iraqi press as: `Here comes Uncle Sam kicking me again. Rally behind me.' ''
It leaves the United States treading a fine line, Yetiv said.
``The U.S. should hit Iraq enough to punish Saddam but not so much that it leaves Iran more influential, because Iran is now a bigger menace in the region than Iraq,'' he said. ``(Iran is) supporting international terrorism, trying to undermine the peace process, trying to build nuclear weapons. . . .
``Saddam's not as strong as people think. Iran is now the growing power. Saddam looks threatening, but he's in an economic, military and political box. The U.S. can attack him at will.'' ILLUSTRATION: Color photos
President Clinton
``Our objectives are limited but clear: to make Saddam pay a price
for the latest act of brutality, reducing his ability to threaten
his neighbors and America's interests.''
Saddam Hussein
``Fight, resist these aggressors and teach them a new, unforgettable
lesson about values that their empty souls lack.''
Color photo
Steve Yetiv warns against a U.S. overreaction to Saddam's latest
military adventure.
Color map by KEN WRIGHT and MICHAEL HALL, The Virginian-Pilot by CNB