THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Sunday, October 6, 1996 TAG: 9610060280
SECTION: SPORTS PAGE: C10 EDITION: FINAL
TYPE: Analysis
SOURCE: By Jim Ducibella, staff writer
LENGTH: 86 lines
Skins' record is impressive, BUT deceptive
I wish I could say I've figured out the Washington Redskins. I've been around them at least a couple of times a week since the middle of July. But every time I tell myself that I've positively uncovered something good about the NFL's early surprise team of the season, I discover something else about them that tarnishes the silver, so to speak.
Example:
The Redskins (4-1) lead the NFL in red-zone scoring. They have been inside an opponents' 20-yard line 10 times and scored seven touchdowns.
But, other than St. Louis, which has played just four games, and New Orleans, which is 0-5, and Indianapolis, which has played just four games, the Redskins have been in the red zone less than any other team in the league.
And so it goes.
The Redskins' defense is the league's fifth-best at preventing touchdowns when teams enter their red zone, allowing just five in 16 tries.
But, Dallas and winless Atlanta are ahead of the Redskins, the stinky Saints just behind them. How important can a stat be when the teams clustered at the top of it - minus the Redskins - have a combined record of 2-12?
Get the picture?
Brian Mitchell leads the NFL in third-down receptions with 10. But his 7.3-yards-per-catch average is 22nd (of 24 players listed) in the NFC.
Quarterback Gus Frerotte is the NFC's fourth-best passer in the fourth quarter, completing 17-of-29 passes for 194 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions. He's the NFL's fifth-best third-down passer. Great. He's at his best when he needs it most.
But, Frerotte has just three touchdown passes in five games. And look at them. Fake field goal against the New York Giants. Then Scott Galbraith (four career TD catches in six full seasons) makes a one-hand, juggling catch in the end zone against St. Louis. Last week, they needed a flea-flicker against the Jets.
Say what you want about calling the right plays at the right time, or about trickery being every bit as much a part of the game as blocking and tackling. To me, they don't have a potent passing attack. Maybe it gets better when Michael Westbrook comes back from the knee injury in a few weeks. Maybe it doesn't. There's no guarantee.
It's hard to find fault with Terry Allen. He's among the top rushers in the NFL. He's accounted for 27 first downs this season, second in the league to Detroit's Barry Sanders. He's made more big plays than anyone on the team and he has to be considered a leading candidate for conference MVP at this stage. If he scores a touchdown against New England next week, his consecutive-games-with-a-touchdown streak will hit 11. Along with Lenny Moore and Emmitt Smith, that's the second-longest run in NFL history.
But, Allen already has carried the ball 111 times in five games. At that pace, he would finish the season - if he finishes the season - with 355 rushes. That's 17 more carries than a year ago, which was by far the busiest season of a career twice threatened by major knee injuries.
And, finally, there's the schedule. The Redskins are 4-1 - but the competition has a combined 8-15 record. Washington needs at least nine victories to make the playoffs for the first time since 1992.
The next five opponents - at New England, home against the Giants and AFC power Indianapolis, at Buffalo, home against Arizona - are 13-9, with the AFC East teams particularly strong.
Say the Redskins win the three homes games and enter the last lap of the season at 7-3. They begin at Philadelphia, where Mark Rypien should be the starting quarterback and the Eagles should be better for it.
Then it's home for San Francisco, then three on the road: at Dallas Thanksgiving Day, at Tampa Bay and at Arizona. I'm figuring they lose to Philly, the 49ers and the Cowboys. They beat Tampa Bay for their eighth victory, then go to Arizona.
They should win there to clinch a playoff berth. They're the better team. But, they've been the better team every time they've played there and they haven't won at Sun Devil Stadium since 1991.
That leaves them with Dallas at home. They're still 8-7, still need a win for the playoffs. It's not only the last game of the season, it's the last NFL game ever at RFK Stadium.
Do they win and move into the postseason?
Do they lose and finish 8-8, about where everyone expected?
I think they'll win.
But, the number of games I've picked correctly is the same as the number of starts Heath Shuler has at quarterback this season. ILLUSTRATION: Photo
FILE
Gus Frerotte is the NFC's fourth-best passer in the fourth quarter,
and the NFL's fifth-best third-down passer. BUT he has just three
touchdown passes in five games. by CNB