THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Tuesday, October 8, 1996 TAG: 9610080296
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY STEVE STONE, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: 86 lines
The Big Bend area of Florida bore the brunt of high winds, heavy rains and flooding tides Monday night as Tropical Storm Josephine raced ashore - on track to head northeast through eastern North Carolina and Virginia today.
``There will be some tropical storm-force winds there, at least, plus more heavy rain and more high surf,'' said Dave Schwartz, a meteorologist at The Weather Channel in Atlanta.
The good news is that the storm is expected to have lost much of its strength by the time it reaches the mid-Atlantic region. Still, it will be a rain maker - and rain is one thing that Fran-battered North Carolina and central Virginia could do without.
``The rainfall will be heavy at times'' today and tonight, the National Weather Service in Washington said. ``And amounts of 2 to 3 inches will be widespread. Locally, heavier amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible.''
The weather service issued a flood watch for much of the Old Dominion on Monday evening as well as a coastal flood watch for Hampton Roads, where strong onshore winds could cause some problems at high tides.
Most of the state is still soaked from a generally wet summer and the heavy rains produced by Fran just a few weeks ago. That means it will take far less rain than normal to fill streams and rivers and threaten a renewed round of flooding.
Rain ahead of Josephine was already falling over Hampton Roads Monday afternoon and was expected to increase overnight. But the worst of the storm is not expected until later today.
The storm was expected to cross through Florida overnight and into Southeast Georgia and South Carolina - its center remaining just inland as it heads into North Carolina.
By Wednesday, it's forecast to be in the vicinity of New York City.
At 8 p.m. Monday, Josephine was battering the extreme northeastern Gulf coast, where thousands of residents had fled inland. The center was about 70 miles southwest of St. Marks, moving northeast near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 70 mph - 4 mph below hurricane strength.
Josephine intensified steadily Sunday and Monday, but waters in the northern Gulf were not warm enough to fuel a surge to hurricane strength, said Stu Ostro of The Weather Channel.
Just in case, however, a hurricane warning was in effect from the Anclote Keys to Apalachicola, Fla. A tropical storm warning also was in effect south of Anclote Keys to Venice; west of Apalachicola to Fort Walton Beach; and for the East Coast from Cape Canaveral northward to Little River Inlet, S.C.
``Strong onshore winds are expected to cause coastal storm surge flooding of 6 to 9 feet or higher above normal tide levels'' in that area, said Max Mayfield, a Hurricane Center meteorologist.
Like Opal just one year ago, Josephine was defying conventional wisdom, coming at Florida's Gulf Coast from the west, having formed just off the Texas-Mexico coast. Most tropical systems move east to west.
The storm was expected to come ashore somewhere near the fishing village of St. Marks, about 15 miles south of Tallahassee, overnight. But its impact already was being felt much farther.
Evacuations were ordered up to 10 miles inland for beaches and barrier islands of nine coastal counties where up to 5 inches of rain were expected.
Up to 2 feet of water were being reported in the streets of several coastal communities in Josephine's path by 9 p.m.
The major concern was the timing of the storm's arrival. The broad center was expected to reach land about the same time as normal high tide, posing the threat not only of very heavy flooding, but also of strong, battering waves built atop wind-tossed tides.
Another problem was geography. The storm was literally pushing water into a corner - in this case the bend between Florida's panhandle and its main peninsula.
Upwards of 7 inches of rain had already fallen in Jacksonville by early evening, 4 inches in the Tallahassee area, and severe and extensive flooding was being reported throughout Florida's Gulf Coast.
Josephine is expected to lose its tropical characteristics quickly as it moves over land, and it could become nothing more than a very big low pressure system today.
``Even though Josephine should be an extratropical storm by the time it reaches the northeastern states,'' said Richard Pasch, a meteorologist at the Hurricane Center, ``it should still be a significant wind-producer.'' ILLUSTRATION: AP
Map
TRACKER'S GUIDE
STEVE STONE
The Virginian-Pilot
[For a copy of the chart, see microfilm for this date.] by CNB