THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Tuesday, October 22, 1996 TAG: 9610220015
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A13 EDITION: FINAL
TYPE: Interview
SERIES: COMMONWEATLH CONVERSATION
One of a series of interviews with Virginia's political leaders
conducted by Pilot editorial writer Margaret Edds. Marcus is leading
Republican campaign consultant. He has managed numerous legislative
and some and some statewide campaigns.
LENGTH: 107 lines
What have been the major trends in Virginia politics during the 1990s?
Clearly, the growth of the Religious Right and its influence within our party. Also, the 1993 election (of George Allen) was a precursor of the '94 election nationwide, a culmination of frustration with the way things were and a desire for change.
How does Republican growth in Virginia compare with that in other Southern states?
My impression has been that we got there much earlier than a lot of Southern states. Maybe because of the growth of Hampton Roads and Northern Virginia, we became a little more cosmopolitan and more suburban than other Southern states, which benefited Republicans.
Also, the disintegration of the Byrd Machine left us with a lot of conservative Democrats who were used to voting Republican at the national level. Legislatively, we're still ahead of most Southern states.
But you lost the 1994 Senate race, and GOP congressional representation has dropped since the 1980s. Why?
Senate races are dominated by personality. On the congressional side, we peaked out in 1980 and started dropping. We had people retire in nonpresidential years, then 1982 and 1986 were down years for Republicans nationally. And the Democrats have used redistricting to advantage.
Also, partially it's because Virginia doesn't defeat many incumbents.
Having managed Marshall Coleman's gubernatorial race in 1989, is there anything you'd do differently in retrospect?
Like anything else, if I had a couple million more bucks, I'd try a couple of other things. We could never make people like Marshall Coleman any better than they liked him the day he was nominated. They knew who he was. In July, if you'd taken the undecideds and given most of that to Coleman, that's about what you had.
Would a different position on abortion have helped Coleman?
I do not believe if Marshall had had a substantially different position on abortion that he would have won the nomination. All three (candidates) essentially had the same position.
Did Coleman's defeat contribute to the party's allowing its candidates to be more flexible on abortion?
The debate over abortion within the pro-life community has changed. The focus is not so much on an amendment to the Constitution as on parental notification. 1989 was part of that. The general feeling is, let's change what we can change, save the lives we can and save the rest later. It's been a maturing of the Religious Right.
Take the Christian Coalition, for example. In 1989, the Christian Coalition was just being organized. We were dealing with the remnants of Robertson for President. As they've grown and expanded, it's clear they've done some very good things.
They're as passionate in support of the issue as they've ever been, but I think they've shown their willingness to support a candidate who has a different position if he's a candidate they otherwise would want in office.
Does that make life easier for you as a political consultant?
I think it does. It opens up things for more candidates to appeal to the Christian Coalition for support. There's a whole host of other issues that they are interested in - gambling, taxes, home schooling, Goals 2000.
What were the dominant forces in the 1993 gubernatorial race?
There was much more concern about crime. There was a tremendous frustration built up with all manner of how things had been handled in state government. The pressure cooker had sort of built up to the point that people wanted something different. ``I'll take my chances. I know I don't like this.''
Was it a personality-driven election as well?
I think it was. You had a guy who when he walks into the room is everybody's best friend and you had a lady that does not come across well and in my mind always conveyed a sort of fear of people.
That was played out in her very cautious statements and George's kind of bold approach and language.
How about the 1994 Senate race?
Totally personality. You were choosing between guys who were very controversial, had lots of problems.
Did that election do in North as a candidate for all time?
I don't know that for sure it did. But the things that caused him the most problems in that election were things that probably don't go away. The truth is, he ran against the weakest Democrat he could run against. . . . I don't really know that he very much enjoyed the experience.
The 1995 legislative races?
The core of that election was that we won in the strong Republican areas and we lost in the Democrat areas. We polarized that election very effectively, and what happened in the end was, more Democrats came out to vote. They were more worried and concerned and scared than Republicans.
Have Democrats been more tenacious in holding on to the legislature than you expected?
We all were more optimistic when we made the big gains in the 1980s. What's happened, we've squeezed all the easy ones out of the system. The reason the Democrats hold on to the House of Delegates is their rural House members. It's very difficult to beat an incumbent in those areas.
I think we can take control of the House in '97. It isn't going to be easy.
What happens in the future? Will Republicans gradually inch ahead?
Republicans will get ahead and once we are ahead, I don't think they can drag us back. But I don't think we're going to go ahead in any big rush where we suddenly have a 10-seat majority. Really to be ahead, we have to be in charge of redistricting in 2001. We have to have a Republican governor and we have to have a majority in at least one house. MEMO: These interviews by Margaret Edds were conducted for a book about
Southern politics in the 1990s. The Virginia chapter is being written by
Dr. Thomas Morris, president of Emory & Henry College, and Ms. Edds. ILLUSTRATION: Boyd Marcus by CNB