THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Sunday, October 27, 1996 TAG: 9610270309
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A1 EDITION: FINAL
SERIES: DECISION '96
CHOOSING A PRESIDENT
What voters need to know that the sound bites don't reveal
Last in an eight-part series on issues underlying the words in the
presidential campaign.
SOURCE: BY PETER SLEVIN AND JODI ENDA, KNIGHT-RIDDER NEWS SERVICE
DATELINE: WASHINGTON LENGTH: 148 lines
Bob Dole's name sits atop a shining resume that lacks just one entry to fulfill his dreams. At 73, he has been a war hero, a master legislator and the longest-serving Republican Senate leader in history.
Yet Dole has spent the better part of 20 years reaching for the one prize that now looks - at least according to the polls - likely to escape his grasp. But what if? What if Clinton falters, voters take a fresh look, and Dole becomes the 43rd president?
Americans could probably expect an administration without fireworks or artifice - one with an emphasis on good stewardship and lower taxes.
Dole's theme is steadiness. He promises solid, predictable leadership in place of a White House known for crisis management and inconsistency. He likes to tell crowds that he is an honorable man, trusted by his former Senate colleagues to keep his word.
``When I'm president of the United States, I will keep my word,'' Dole says. ``My word is my bond.''
Yet the Kansas Republican has not painted a vision of a Dole presidency in bold or clear colors. Gleanings from his speeches and talks with his advisers suggest a presidency of safe steps rather than great leaps.
Republican strategist William Kristol foresees Dole reacting to events as an ``in-box president.'' It would be a ``managerial, take-care-of-problems-as-they-come-up presidency.''
``It's hard to see evidence that he's got a vision that would drive his presidency or lead him to take great risks,'' said Kristol, former chief of staff to Vice President Dan Quayle. ``It would have an awful lot of similarities to the Bush administration.''
Dole is running an anti-government candidacy, which limits his ability to please constituents with fresh programs. He promises voters less federal authority, a smaller bureaucracy and lower taxes. He says he will cut income-tax rates by 15 percent within three years and balance the budget in six.
``I think the core of his effort would be economic,'' said Robert Zoellick, a Dole foreign-policy adviser. ``He would obviously implement his tax proposal, and there would be the budget effort. That would be the core of his domestic agenda.''
Nothing flashy gleams from Dole's campaign speeches. No grand idea, no Great Society, no Contract With America. He does promise to ``end the IRS as we know it,'' a play on Clinton's promise ``to end welfare as we know it.'' Details are sketchy.
Dole says he would shut the Departments of Education and Energy, although he would preserve the Energy Department's most advanced laboratories. He pledges to increase deployment of the National Guard along U.S. borders to slow drug trafficking. He would spend billions more than Clinton to build an anti-missile defense system.
``This is a guy who has never had any great policy agendas,'' said Burdett Loomis, a political science professor at the University of Kansas. ``My sense is you've got a guy who neither in terms of pushing vast new programs or cutting back current programs has himself a huge agenda.''
There is some evidence that the defining agenda in a Dole administration would come from Congress. Logic suggests that the groundswell needed to propel Dole to victory would almost certainly mean strong Republican majorities in the House and Senate.
That, in turn, would mean important influence for House speaker Newt Gingrich and his activist, budget-cutting, conservative Republican followers. Such a Congress could help Dole with his many proposed tax cuts, but might also press him to go further on regulatory relaxation and social issues than Dole would like.
Keeping a firm hold on the reins would take effort, yet friends and advisers believe Dole has been well conditioned by years of consensus-building, deal-making leadership in the Senate.
``I think the Congress would be very much an agenda-setting Congress,'' said Steve Merksamer, a lawyer in Sacramento, Calif., and a Dole adviser. ``Having said that, I think Bob Dole would be the leader of the country as well as the leader of the party. The Congress would defer to Bob Dole in terms of the direction of the country.''
Merksamer thinks Dole would also be likely to reach out to Democrats on Capitol Hill, as he did in the Senate: ``One of the great failures of the Clinton administration has been a great failure to work with Republicans. Dole would make efforts to include the Democratic leadership.''
Much of a president's success in a monumentally complex job depends on the way he governs, the way he leads, the connection he makes with citizens and minions alike.
Jimmy Carter was infamous for micromanaging, while Ronald Reagan preferred the forest to the trees. Clinton, never responsible for anything more than the government of a small state, understood little of Congress and ran a chaotic White House at first. But he is a master communicator with voters.
Dole is very different. He spent 35 years on Capitol Hill learning the art of the deal. He is expert at building consensus, but is known for making decisions that catch even his closest advisers off-guard.
Ross K. Baker, a Rutgers University professor, said Dole's tendency to drop decisions like bombs on unprepared staffers could cause problems for his presidency. He warned that Dole ``would emerge out of the Oval Office with a `gotcha' announcement'' that would leave little chance to prepare public opinion.
As a senator, Dole was credited with considerable listening skills. Because of a disability that makes handwriting painful and tiring, Dole developed an impressive memory and an ability to process issues in his head. He prizes efficient communication, whether by brief memo or short conversation.
``That mental computer of his is remarkable,'' said Dan Stanley, a former Dole chief of staff. ``I've never seen anybody like it. It's like going into Circuit City and all those TVs are on different channels. Bob Dole knows the characters and the plots and the end game of each one.''
Roderick A. DeArment, another former chief of staff in Dole's Senate office, played down speculation that Dole would keep his own counsel to the exclusion of top aides.
``He has some past reputation, particularly with campaigns, of trying to manage things. He's quite good at delegating, despite the reputation,'' DeArment said. ILLUSTRATION: Graphic
DOLE'S LIST
Here are some of the major policies that Bob Dole says he would
pursue as president:
TAXES: Push for a 15 percent cut in federal income-tax rates.
Dole also wants to cut the current 28 percent capital-gains tax rate
in half, and offer a $500-per-child tax credit for families.
GOVERNMENT DOWNSIZING: Eliminate the Internal Revenue Service,
the Departments of Education, Energy and Commerce, and the national
arts and humanities endowments.
CRIME: Expand spending on prison construction, try violent
juvenile criminals as adults, and replace the current 5-day waiting
period for the purchase of a handgun with an instant, computerized
background-check system.
MEDICARE: Cut the growth in Medicare spending from 9 percent to
5.9 percent a year.
JOB TRAINING: Convert federal money for job-training programs
into block grants to the states.
SCHOOL VOUCHERS: Provide vouchers to parents so they can choose a
school of their choice for their children.
AFFIRMATIVE ACTION: Roll back affirmative-action programs, and
ban federal preferences based on sex or race.
DEFENSE: Increase the budget of the Defense Department.
MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM: Develop a missile defense system by 2003.
IMMIGRATION: Temporarily reduce legal immigration, and deny
access to social services to illegal aliens.
ILLEGAL DRUGS: Create a role for the National Guard and the
military in narcotics-trafficking interdiction, and use the bully
pulpit of the White House to discourage drug use.
SUPREME COURT: Avoid any litmus test for his court appointees,
but end what he sees as liberal court selections by Clinton.
ABORTION: Support a constitutional amendment to make abortion
illegal except in the case of rape, incest, and to protect the life
of the mother.
KEYWORDS: PRESIDENTIAL RACE 1996 CANDIDATES
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