THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1997, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Thursday, January 9, 1997 TAG: 9701090320
SECTION: LOCAL PAGE: B1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY STEVE STONE, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: 71 lines
It's one of those winter forecasts almost everyone hates.
A chance of snow, mixing with and changing to rain. Or sleet. Or freezing rain.
Snow lovers want more of the white stuff - and the possibility of an unscheduled day off to play in it.
Snow haters want nothing to do with frozen precipitation of any sort. Or its traffic-snarling, schedule-upsetting effects - not to mention the task of moving it.
So, no doubt, both sides hope today's forecast is too warm or too cold.
``A temperature difference of two or three degrees will make a whole lot of difference'' in determining who gets snow or rain - or an icy mess, said Rich Johnson of The Weather Channel in Atlanta.
The best bet Wednesday night was that all of Hampton Roads, even the immediate coastal area, would see snow overnight. That's expected to change over to mostly rain early today near the coast, with a mix of snow and rain just inland - Suffolk, Isle of Wight County, Williamsburg and the Peninsula. Well inland, mostly snow is expected.
The rest of Virginia could see five inches or more of snow north of Richmond before the storm passes, with the threat of an ice storm for Central Virginia. ``The interior is likely to be hard hit,'' Johnson said, while northeastern North Carolina can expect a greater chance of escaping snowfall.
``The tricky part of this forecast is the changeover from snow, sleet and freezing rain to all rain as warmer air arrives,'' said Dave Tolleris, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Wakefield.
Key to that is ``a stubborn wedge of cold air (which) will be difficult to dislodge,'' Tolleris said, ``especially across much of central and interior Eastern Virginia.''
Warm air is lighter than cold air, so even as the storm system's circulation steers warmer air into North Carolina and Virginia, it will have trouble displacing the dense cold air near the ground.
As a result, the warm air carrying the moisture will initially ride up and over the cold air. This means that precipitation first will fall as snow, possibly mixed with sleet.
As time goes by, the air aloft where the precipitation originates will warm to above freezing. When this happens, precipitation will start out as rain. But, as it reaches the cold air near the ground, it will either freeze into sleet or freeze on the ground as freezing rain.
Eventually, the cold air near the ground will be eroded away and the precipitation should change over to plain rain.
``This transition will occur quickly over the Hampton Roads area and much of northeast North Carolina,'' Tolleris said. ``For interior sections of eastern Virginia . . . minor snow accumulations may occur before the transition.''
While today's high should get to 40 locally, the temperature inland is expected to hover near freezing all day, resulting in some ice accumulation. The Virginia Piedmont and areas north and west of Richmond could be hit with a prolonged period of freezing rain today, the Weather Service warned.
Thus, anyone traveling inland should plan on hazardous conditions and should allow extra time.
And even if Hampton Roads gets through this storm unscathed, don't rest too easy. By Sunday, a second storm system is expected to be approaching.
``This is likely to be a significant storm,'' Johnson said, ``with snow all the way south to the Florida Panhandle.''
Winter is back. With a vengeance, it seems. ILLUSTRATION: Today: A mix of rain and snow, changing to all rain
early before tapering off in the afternoon. The high in the mid 40s
with light winds. The chance of precipitation is 80 percent.
Friday: A chance of rain, possibly with some snow inland, with
the high in the mid 40s and the low in the upper 20s to the mid 30s.
Saturday: Partly cloudy and cold with the high in the 30s to
around 40 and the low in the 20s to low 30s.