THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1997, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Tuesday, January 28, 1997 TAG: 9701280212
SECTION: LOCAL PAGE: B1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY LIZ SZABO, STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: CHESAPEAKE LENGTH: 89 lines
Growth in what has long been considered Virginia's fastest-growing city appears to be slowing down.
Chesapeake's population grew by 1.74 percent last year, a dramatic decrease from recent boom years, according to figures released last week by the Planning Department.
Chesapeake's population is now estimated to be 190,469, up from 187,204 last January, said Brent R. Nielson, Chesapeake's director of planning.
Chesapeake's population had grown by an estimated annual rate of 4 percent or more during 1993 and 1994. The growth slowed to 2.3 percent in 1995, Nielson said.
Last year's rate would have been about 2.3 percent as well, but the growth was offset somewhat by population lost with the demolition of World War II-era homes in Campostella Square, Nielson said.
The slower growth is due partly to the city's efforts to regulate the pace of development, Nielson said. Revised planning and land-use policies adopted by the City Council in 1995 have reduced new residential construction by half since 1994, he said.
The city now automatically denies rezoning requests for any proposed development that would serve a public school whose enrollment is more than 120 percent of its intended capacity, Nielson said. Before, the city approved 30 to 40 rezoning applications a year. Only three were approved last year.
A weaker housing market also may be a factor in the slower growth rate, Nielson said.
The city's proposed capital budget, now under consideration by the City Council, is based on a projected growth rate of 2 percent. But the lower population should not hurt the city's economy or budget outlook, said Iris Hoskie, Chesapeake's interim budget director.
While a slower growing residential population reduces city revenues - mostly from one-time fees, such as those for building permits and for water and sewer use - that revenue loss should be offset by strong commercial construction, Hoskie said.
The growth rate within Chesapeake neighborhoods varies widely. The Rivercrest planning area, north of Great Bridge, experienced the greatest growth, 3.83 percent.
Deep Creek experienced the second-largest growth rate at 3.48 percent, but parts of that planning area showed much higher rates of growth. The new subdivisions built in the Cedar Road corridor between U.S. 17 and Dominion Boulevard, for example, expanded by an explosive 10.69 percent.
But some areas of the city are actually losing residents.
South Norfolk's population fell by 1.74 percent, mostly because of the demolition of dilapidated public housing.
Population estimates are based on the number of new certificates of occupancy and demolitions. To arrive at their estimate, Chesapeake city planners multiply the number of new housing units by 2.87 people per household, the U.S. Census average household size, factoring in a 4 percent vacancy rate and subtracting demolished housing units.
Other cities facing rapid population growth are looking to Chesapeake as a model, Nielson said.
``A number of other cities and counties throughout the state have asked to review our growth management practices, including Loudoun and Prince William and Fairfax and Chesterfield and Fauquier,'' Nielson said.
In comparison, Norfolk has been losing population. In 1995, the most recent year for which statistics are available, Norfolk's estimated population fell by 1.1 percent, according to the Norfolk Planning Department.
In that same period, Virginia Beach's population grew by just under 1 percent and Suffolk's grew by 2.86 percent, planners in those cities reported.
Portsmouth planning officials did not have population statistics for that period. ILLUSTRATION: Color graphic by Mike Hall/The Virginian-Pilot
[Map of Chesapeake showing the planning areas]
Growth Slows Down in Chesapeake
[Citywide population Jan. 1, 1996 - 187,204]
[Citywide population Jan. 1, 1997 - 190,469]
[% change in 1996 - 1.74%]
[Planning area, % change in 1996, % of city population]
Color file photo
What is Growing?
Other Area Cities
[growth % change]
[The full text of this graphic is not available in the database]
[For complete copy, see microfilm]
KEYWORDS: CHESAPEAKE GROWTH STATISTICS