DATE: Friday, September 19, 1997            TAG: 9709190839

SECTION: FRONT                   PAGE: A1   EDITION: FINAL 

SOURCE: STAFF AND WIRE REPORT 

DATELINE: WASHINGTON                        LENGTH:   95 lines

FOR FIRST TIME, NEW CASES OF AIDS DROPS, 6%

For the first time since the AIDS epidemic was identified 16 years ago, the number of newly diagnosed cases declined last year, federal health officials reported Thursday.

The incidence of the disease in people older than age 12 dropped 6 percent from 1995 to 1996, from 60,620 cases to 56,730 cases, the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said.

The encouraging trend - going hand-in-hand with reports in recent months of dramatic drops in AIDS-related deaths - likely reflects the impact of powerful new drug treatments and prevention efforts that have prolonged symptom-free survival for those with the virus, health officials said.

The new CDC numbers represent individuals who developed clinically defined AIDS - that is, who experienced an AIDS-related infection or other symptom, or whose immune system CD4 cells have dropped to 250 or fewer, or both.

The figures do not represent a trend in the number of new infections; an individual can be infected with AIDS for years before developing symptoms.

Nor was all the news positive. The incidence of cases traced to heterosexual transmission continued to rise, jumping 11 percent among men and 7 percent among women.

James Loyce Jr., chief executive officer of AIDS Project Los Angeles, called this finding ``a sober wake-up call to Americans that heterosexual AIDS is not a myth.''

Still, health officials hailed the overall decline.

``This is remarkable evidence that our efforts in prevention and treatment are allowing more people to live free of HIV while we are extending the healthy lives of those who are infected,'' Health and Human Services Secretary Donna E. Shalala said.

Precise local and state numbers for 1996 aren't available yet, said Heidi Villanueva, who tracks AIDS numbers for the Virginia health department. There is an average lag of six months between diagnosis and reporting, so cases for 1996 probably will continue to be reported through the end of this year.

``I'm really not comfortable about making conclusions for 1996 yet,'' she said.

The data available so far - which were cases reported through July of this year - show a significant drop from 1995 to 1996, although that gap probably will shrink.

For Virginia, there were 1,133 diagnosed cases in 1995 and 864 cases reported so far for 1996, a drop of 24 percent. For the Eastern Region, which includes Hampton Roads, the numbers are 385 for 1995 and 328 for 1996, a drop of 15 percent.

The CDC has the resources to do elaborate surveys and statistical analysis, allowing the CDC to come up with good conclusions earlier, Villanueva said.

The CDC report found that:

Among gay and bisexual men, newly diagnosed AIDS cases dropped 15 percent for whites, 8 percent for Latinos and 3 percent for blacks.

Among all whites - men and women - the decline was 13 percent, while cases among all Latinos fell 5 percent. Among all blacks, no change occurred in the incidence of cases from 1995 to 1996.

By region of the country, AIDS incidence declined 12 percent in the West, 10 percent in the Midwest, 8 percent in the Northeast and 1 percent in the Southeast.

Among the new cases traced to heterosexual transmission, the greatest increases occurred among black men (19 percent), Latino men (13 percent), and black women (12 percent).

Dr. Helene Gayle, a CDC official, said the changing trends in AIDS transmission demonstrated by the figures would likely alter the way the federal government tracks the epidemic.

``We must improve our ability to monitor HIV infection to effectively determine evolving patterns . . . so that we can appropriately target resources for prevention and treatment,'' she said.

The CDC also reported that the number of people in the United States living with AIDS increased 11 percent from 1995 to 1996, an indicator that individuals with the disease are surviving longer. As of December 1996, Americans living with AIDS totaled 235,470.

While this is generally regarded as positive news, it also means prevention will become even more important and ``there will be more people to take care of,'' one CDC official said.

Despite the recent flood of decidedly upbeat news concerning the disease, AIDS experts and activists repeatedly have cautioned that the benefits of the new drug therapies could be short-lived and that no one should assume the crisis has ended. But many scientists believe that understanding gained during this period could lead to even better treatments.

``I think that the length of the benefits will vary from patient to patient, but we'll see better results as more drugs come along and we learn how to use them,'' said Dr. Robert T. Schooley, an AIDS specialist at the University of Colorado Health Sciences Center.

Schooley said he has seen a clear drop in new cases in his own practice resulting from the new therapies, as well as expanded access to care - especially for poor people - through the federal Ryan White program.

``There's no question that fewer AIDS cases are being diagnosed as a result,'' Schooley said. ILLUSTRATION: Graphic

In Virginia

FROM 1995 TO 1996, REPORTED AIDS CASES FELL 24 PERCENT.

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