DATE: Sunday, September 21, 1997            TAG: 9709210078

SECTION: FRONT                   PAGE: A7   EDITION: FINAL 

SOURCE: THE WASHINGTON POST 

                                            LENGTH:   69 lines

WHO'LL BE VIRGINIA'S NEXT GOVERNOR? ANYONE'S GUESS, EARLY VOTER POLLS SAY

The race for Virginia governor is deadlocked, in part because a sizable number of voters who approve of popular Republican Gov. George F. Allen are backing Democrat Donald S. Beyer Jr. instead of the GOP's James S. Gilmore III, a Washington Post poll indicates.

Despite a robust economy that has most voters saying they're better off financially than they were four years ago, Gilmore has not rounded up the coalition of conservatives and moderates that gave Allen a landslide victory in 1993. About two-thirds of Virginians surveyed say they believe that Allen is doing a good job, but only about half of those favoring Allen also expressed support for Gilmore - and 33 percent said they back Beyer.

The poll also shows that Beyer and Gilmore have accurately identified the top priorities of voters - improving schools and holding down taxes among them - but that most Virginians can't distinguish between the candidates' positions on those issues.

Some voters say Beyer hasn't given them enough reason to change course and put a Democrat in the governor's office. That could help explain why Beyer, the state's lieutenant governor and a suburban Washington Volvo dealer, holds only a slim lead in Northern Virginia, a key area for him.

Overall, Beyer leads Gilmore, 44 percent to 43 percent, according to the Post survey of 808 registered voters. When only likely voters are counted, Gilmore is ahead by 1 percentage point. The poll, taken Sept. 12-16, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, meaning that the race is a statistical tie.

In the contest for lieutenant governor, former Democratic U.S. representative L.F. Payne Jr. leads Republican John H. Hager, 41 percent to 37 percent.

State Sen. Mark L. Earley, R-Chesapeake, has a 42 percent to 37 percent edge over Democrat William D. Dolan III in the attorney general's race.

``In effect, the campaign has yet to start,'' and the election is up for grabs, said Robert S. Holsworth, a political scientist at Virginia Commonwealth University, commenting on the poll numbers in the governor's race. ``These guys haven't made much of an impression yet.''

Voters rate both Beyer and Gilmore highly on issue after issue, from defending the environment to keeping Virginia's economy strong. But many Virginians seem conflicted about what they want and which of the two moderate, experienced officeholders would deliver it.

Some of those surveyed say they are undecided because Beyer and Gilmore have adopted parts of each other's platforms.

``It's hard to figure out just where they stand,'' said one respondent, Paul E. MacDougal, 50, a retired firefighter from Chesapeake. ``I think it's a crying shame. Don't be a fence-rider; if you don't like something, just say you don't like it. Nobody can please everybody.''

Many voters also were reluctant to give Gilmore credit for Allen's accomplishments, which have included overhauling welfare, abolishing parole and presiding over a period of falling crime and unemployment. Besides plans to hire more teachers and phase out Virginia's unpopular property tax on cars and trucks, Gilmore has focused on casting himself as Allen's logical heir.

The poll suggests that despite the bustling economy and falling crime, some voters are restless for change. Forty-eight percent of those surveyed said they want the next governor to move in ``a new direction,'' and 48 percent said he should stay the course. A majority faulted both candidates for lacking new ideas.

Among African-American voters, traditionally the most reliable Democratic constituency, seven out of 10 back Beyer. But 28 percent said they doubt they will cast ballots on Election Day, compared with 12 percent of all whites, indicating that Beyer has work to do among black voters. Gilmore holds a big lead among white voters, 49 percent to 37 percent. KEYWORDS: GUBERNATORIAL RACE VIRGINIA ANALYSIS

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