DATE: Sunday, November 2, 1997              TAG: 9711010008

SECTION: COMMENTARY              PAGE: J5   EDITION: FINAL 

TYPE: Opinion

SOURCE: MARGARET EDDS

DATELINE: RICHMOND                          LENGTH:   85 lines

NO CAR TAX THE LITTLE SLOGAN THAT COULD

Republican Mike Salster recalls driving out of the early morning fog into Alta Vista on Labor Day and being hit by a sea of red-white-and-blue placards: ``No Car Tax.''

``It was the first time I'd seen them,'' Salster said. ``It was overwhelming.'' Two days before the election that will determine Virginia's course for the next four years, few Virginians outside prison or an intensive-care ward have missed the experience.

It's red-white-and-blue on the way to soccer, the post office and work. Lately, other GOP candidates have taken to stapling their signs to gubernatorial candidate Jim Gilmore's originals. One suspects a few Democrats wish they could too.

Which brings us to two of the most important questions of the 1997 campaign: Who thought up the ``No Car Tax'' yard signs? And what would have happened if Don Beyer had, from the start, papered trees and telephone posts with an equally catchy phrase?

Some of the alternatives that have cropped up at the 11th hour would have done nicely. ``It's a Sham.'' Or ``Save Our Schools.'' Or on a loftier note, ``Education First.''

The Gilmore campaign says it's unable to serve history by identifying the individual who conceived the yard signs. It's easy to imagine that consultant Boyd Marcus, whose genius inspired the ``No Car Tax'' plan, designed the advertising as well.

(This goes down, by the way, as the only time in recent political memory that a 25-cent placard was worth more than a $50,000 TV spot.)

But spokesman Reed Boatright says ``No Car Tax'' actually grew out of one of those jam sessions where everyone is sitting around the office juggling ideas until a ball lands on someone's head with a ``thunk.'' No one can quite remember who threw the ball in the first place.

What Boatright does remember is that the slogan was intended for bumper stickers. ``We bought 3,000 in June or July and they went like hotcakes,'' he said. ``So we ordered 12,000 and they went very fast, and somewhere in there we decided to transpose the message to yard signs.''

A star was born.

Somewhere in there, also, Democrats began to take note. They saw polls pronouncing the car tax the most hated levy in Virginia. They heard usually friendly folk at the grocery store grousing about the tax. Who knows? They may even have even started complaining themselves as they began socking away a few dollars for the bill conveniently (for Republicans) served up in October in some localities.

And so, the Democratic think-tank put Beyer on the side of ``No Car Tax'' as well, and the campaign began winding toward Tuesday's conclusion. Except that, about 10 days ago, Democrats realized it wasn't working.

Since then they've been delivering with a vengeance the truth that ``No Car Tax'' is a nifty slogan but problematic policy. In press conferences and street corners and television ads, Beyer has been talking about (a) the likelihood that the tax will not be eliminated anytime soon and (b) the dangers if it is.

Meanwhile, he has continued to promote his own scaled-back version of tax relief.

Whether Beyer pulls out a miracle victory on Tuesday or is buried in the Republican landslide that some foresee, the most-talked-about question in the aftermath is certain to be: What if Beyer had taken a purer, no-tax-cut route? What if the choice had been unadultered: Tax cuts vs. investment in education and roads?

Confronted with that question last week, many Democrats said privately that they wish they'd had a chance to find out. Some suspect Beyer feels the same. At least one individual close to his inner circle said Beyer's personal instinct was to fight Gilmore's tax proposal outright.

He was persuaded by advisers to take a more cautious route, the person said.

Still, it is far from certain that a different tactic on Beyer's part would have made these final days any easier.

``He would have come down possibly on the side of righteousness and lost,'' admitted a Democratic Party official who'd have preferred a different course.

``I don't believe it would have worked, because people want to believe their taxes can be cut,'' said Salster.

Regardless of who wins on Tuesday, you can take two predictions to the bank.

One is that legislators in both parties, having felt the earth move under the weight of ``No Car Tax,'' will start searching for ways to phase it out.

And two, don't be surprised if the only way they can do so, without jeopardizing services, is to raise some other tax. It's a lot easier to staple a slogan to a sign post than it is to make it reality. MEMO: Ms. Edds is an editorial writer for The Virginian-Pilot.

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