DATE: Sunday, November 9, 1997              TAG: 9711090062

SECTION: FRONT                   PAGE: A12  EDITION: FINAL 

SOURCE: BY WARREN FISKE AND LEDYARD KING, STAFF WRITERS 

DATELINE: RICHMOND                          LENGTH:   90 lines

BOTH ROBERTSON, BEYER CLAIMED TOO MUCH IN RACE, ANALYSTS SAY

Pat Robertson swept into the ballroom Tuesday night shaking hands, accepting congratulations and claiming vindication before the television cameras.

Judging by his elation, you might have thought he, not Republican James S. Gilmore III, had been elected governor.

Robertson maintained that the turning point in the campaign came in early October when Democrat Donald S. Beyer Jr. began airing television ads portraying Gilmore as the religious broadcaster's pawn. Robertson's aides handed out charts showing how Gilmore pulled away from Beyer in polls from that point all the way through to his sizable victory last week.

``The issue is: `Do Christians have a right to support candidates or not?' '' Robertson said. ``Virginia voters say they absolutely do. They repudiated Don Beyer and Dolan in this election, who went against me,'' he said, referring to attorney-general candidate William Dolan. ``I hope the Democrats have learned a lesson.''

A number of political scientists, pollsters and campaign strategists for both parties say Robertson has vastly overestimated his significance in this fall's election. They say Gilmore's popular pledge to end the car tax for most Virginians led to the unprecedented Republican sweep of state government's three highest offices.

But the very fact that Robertson's open support of Gilmore did not appear to greatly impact the election should by itself offer an important lesson to Democrats, they add. Efforts to link all Republican candidates to the broadcaster - a staple of Democratic strategy in the past two gubernatorial elections - usually don't work.

In commercials and speeches, Beyer criticized Gilmore for accepting $100,000 in political contributions from Robertson since 1993. Among those critical of the tactic is Paul Goldman, former chairman of the state Democratic Party.

``If you could show Jim Gilmore had done something for Pat Robertson, that would have been one thing,'' Goldman said. ``But ad hominem attacks just don't work. . . . The Beyer people screwed up by trying to paint Gilmore as an extremist. It was just another week lost by the campaign.''

Mark Rozell, a political scientist at American University who specializes in the religious right, agreed. He noted that Gilmore's political rise came from his reputation of being a tough prosecutor - not through any connection to conservative Christians.

``Beyer's ads attacking Pat Robertson did not backfire as much as they did not resonate,'' he said. ``It doesn't necessarily bother voters that a particular candidate is supported by Pat Robertson if that candidate is a mainstream candidate.''

An Election Day poll of 500 Virginia voters by the Christian Coalition supports the contention that Robertson was a wash. Twenty-four percent said the ads made them more likely to vote for Beyer; 23 percent said less likely.

Arne Owens, a spokesman for the Coalition, said the poll result doesn't tell the whole story. ``Once the ads came out, it just energized Gilmore's base,'' he said.

Robertson also took pleasure in Mark L. Earley's victory as attorney general. Earley, a former missionary, is the first Republican to be elected statewide with open ties to the Christian right and a strong anti-abortion record.

Earley, who received $35,000 in contributions from Robertson, also withstood strong efforts to portray him as a marionette of the religious leader.

Earley said last week that the effort failed because his 10-year record in the state senate demonstrated his commitment to a broad range of issues outside the religious conservative agenda, including labor, mental health and welfare reform.

``I think the lesson for anyone is if you have a 10-year record of representing all of Virginia on a variety of issues, then there's a pretty good chance you can get elected,'' said Earley, who played down his opposition to abortion during the campaign.

Rozell said Earley's breadth made him vastly different from religious conservatives who had failed to gain statewide election in the past. In 1993, for example, Republican Michael P. Farris debuted in politics with an unsuccessful run for lieutenant governor in which he criticized public schools and abortion rights.

Rozell said Earley's success could serve as a ``model'' for other social conservatives. The lesson, he said, is to rise through the system and represent a broad platform.

``If social conservatives are to be successful, they need candidates like Mark Earley who can appeal to a broad base,'' he said. MEMO: Staff writer Laura LaFay contributed to this story. ILLUSTRATION: Photo

BETH BERGMAN NAKAMURA/The Virginian-Pilot

Pat Robertson, whose gifts to the campaign of James S. Gilmore III

stirred controversy, overestimates his significance in the election,

say political scientists. It was Gilmore's pledge to cut the car tax

that was decisive, they say. KEYWORDS: ELECTION VIRGINIA RESULTS ANALYSIS<

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