DATE: Tuesday, November 18, 1997            TAG: 9711180494

SECTION: SPORTS                  PAGE: C1   EDITION: FINAL 

TYPE: Column 

SOURCE: Bob Molinaro 

                                            LENGTH:   62 lines

HEISMAN? IT'S GOING TO BE MANNING IN A LANDSIDE

In three weeks, my Heisman Trophy ballot is due in New York.

``Once again the Heisman race is wide open,'' the brochure sent out by the Downtown Athletic Club informs me, ``so every vote is important.''

Wide open?

But isn't everybody playing for second place? Doesn't Peyton Manning, the Tennessee quarterback, have this thing wrapped up?

Manning's got great pro potential. And an even better public relations machine, otherwise known as the national media.

The media all but presented Manning with the big bronze statue when he announced he would return for his final year of college ball. It's as if the actual 1997 season were a mere formality.

Voting for Manning is such a conventional move that one feels almost coerced into joining the crowd.

This puts a Heisman voter in a tight spot. No self-respecting sports writer wants to admit to following the herd, unless it's headed in the direction of a free buffet line.

What's the alternative, then? Well, here and there over the years I've awarded my first-place vote to an offensive lineman or a defensive player.

Protest votes? Perhaps. In any case, they were blows against conformity.

And this year? Well, with three weeks to go before ballots must be in, what I need to know - Beano Cook, please call - is why Manning is a stronger candidate than Ryan Leaf, the pass-throwing phenom at Washington State?

I won't bore you with the statistics, but going by the numbers, Leaf is enjoying a better year than Manning. More yards passing, more touchdowns, a better national ranking.

Like Manning, Leaf quarterbacks a team with one loss. And Washington State is only a single victory away from its first Rose Bowl appearance since 1931.

This is no knock on Manning, who is an All-American in every way. If you want, give him a few bonus points for playing in the SEC, a very tough league.

But what is it that gives Manning an edge over Leaf? Other than pre-season publicity.

I won't be so naive as to suggest that hype should have nothing to do with who wins awards. Sports, like any product up for sale, depends on hype for survival.

Why, though, should each season start with media-sanctioned Heisman candidates? In theory, isn't every college player a candidate?

Traditionally, someone who enjoys the hype of a Peyton Manning takes on the image of the heavyweight champion who must be soundly whipped before the judges strip him of his title.

Why is that?

As for alternative candidates, Charles Woodson, Michigan's two-way threat, deserves some support. But while Woodson caught a TD pass against Penn State, he's primarily a defensive back. He looks to me like a good third-place finisher.

Leaf appears to be Manning's strongest challenger. Leaf, though, works under the handicap of the underdog. He must produce more to overtake Manning at the polls than Manning does to hang on to his advantage.

A perceived backlash against the Manning hype might help Leaf or Woodson. But my guess is the voters will do what voters everywhere do - fall into line.

Manning wins the Heisman in a landslide.

As for who gets my top vote ... not so fast. In some places, the race remains wide open.

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