
DATE: Wenesday, November 19, 1997           TAG: 9711180415

SECTION: FRONT                   PAGE: A15  EDITION: FINAL 

SERIES: Future of the Fleet 

SOURCE: BY DAVE MAYFIELD, STAFF WRITER 

                                            LENGTH:  154 lines

SIX SAFE BETS FOR THE NAVY'S LOCAL FUTURE

From dozens of interviews with Navy officers, contractors and others who work with or study the sea service, The Virginian-Pilot received a grab-bag of predictions about the Navy's future - and narrowed them to a few that we believe have a better-than-average chance of proving true. 1. Hampton Roads will grow in importance as a base of Navy operations.

As the Navy shrinks, it is drawing back to Hampton Roads. The plan to make Oceana Naval Air Station in Virginia Beach its sole East Coast fighter base is the highest-profile example. Another: the Navy Exchange Service Command, which in 1993 moved its headquarters from Staten Island, N.Y., to Virginia Beach. It moved its Navy lodges and ship stores divisions to Chesapeake and Norfolk, respectively.

There have been dozens of smaller consolidations favoring the region. They range from recently moving the Atlantic district headquarters of the Military Sealift Command from Bayonne, N.J., to Norfolk, to expanding the territorial jurisdiction for local commands involved in everything from engineering to public works to legal services.

Even with 30 fewer ships than it had at its peak a decade ago, Hampton Roads has a larger percentage of the fleet now than then. It has a larger percentage of the Navy's active-duty personnel now, too.

``Hampton Roads is the largest naval base in the world, and I don't think it will change in our lifetime,'' said Adm. J. Paul Reason, commander-in-chief of the Atlantic Fleet. 2.

Navy shipbuilding and ship-repair jobs will continue to decline.

While it's still building and overhauling aircraft carriers and stands to share again in the construction of submarines, the largest builder of Navy ships, Newport News Shipbuilding, has a far smaller Navy backlog than a decade ago. That's why 10,000 fewer people work at the yard now. Under increasing pressure from the Navy to cut the costs of future jobs, it hopes to shift workers displaced by automation to the construction of commercial ships. But that work has so far been unprofitable.

South Hampton Roads ship-repair yards will struggle through some lean times, too, if for no other reason than that as the Navy continues downsizing, there will be fewer local ships to repair.

But private repairers like Norshipco and Metro Machine Corp. may benefit in the long run. That is, if a current drought in work available to them shakes out some shallow-pocketed competitors, and if the Navy resumes cutting capacity at the Norfolk Naval Shipyard in Portsmouth, which lately it has been propping up by steering to it repair work traditionally performed by the private repairers.

Norfolk Naval ``will be the last one open,'' predicted Lee Benz, vice president of business development for Virginia Beach-based American Systems Engineering Corp. ``But I think the Navy is going to reduce the size of that yard.''

``It's going to have to play out because the cost is just too great,'' agreed Metro President Richard Goldbach. ``If they don't, the (higher) cost premium of doing work in the naval shipyards will have to come out of something else.'' 3.

There will be fewer sailors per ship.

The Navy's ``Smart Ship'' initiative on the Pascagoula, Miss.-based cruiser Yorktown is a good indication of where the service is headed. Using rejiggered watches and incorporating automation - such as sensors that monitor the condition of equipment - the service has cut the Yorktown's crew by 44 to 336.

Even more dramatic cuts are planned in the next generation of surface warships, which is supposed to carry a crew of no more than 95. The so-called ``land attack destroyer'' is scheduled to enter the fleet around 2008.

Between now and then, Rear Adm. Stephen H. Baker's ``shot in the dark'' estimate is that crew sizes will come down by about 10 percent. ``It certainly could be more,'' said Baker, commander of the Norfolk-based Operational Test and Evaluation Force. ``I don't think it would be less.''

Even a 10 percent cut in crew sizes would mean several thousand fewer local sailors. Of the roughly 85,000 sailors now stationed in Hampton Roads, more than 56,000 are assigned to fleet operations, most of them on ships.

But part of that loss may be made up on shore. The Navy plans to capitalize on improved satellite communications to shift onboard functions ranging from records-keeping to inventory management ashore. Depending upon how many of these functions are ``off-shipped'' and whether they're taken over by contractors, Hampton Roads may find itself competing with other metro areas for the new shore-based work centers. 4.

Sailors will be better-educated, have more free time and won't transfer as often.

As it shrinks, the Navy's recruiting standards will toughen. And as the increasingly complex Navy work environment demands, among other things, more knowledge about business practices, local colleges and universities may see an increase in enrollment from service members.

Sailors should have more time to hit the books. A big reason: cuts in the number of days they'll be pulling extra duty, particularly on weekends. The Norfolk-based carrier George Washington is on the cutting edge of the trend. In port, its crew members pull additional duty every eight days, compared to the standard four.

More leisure time for sailors could redistribute the way they spend their money. And by improving their quality of life, it would also likely help keep them in the service longer, preserving and perhaps reinforcing the trend toward an older and more family-oriented fleet.

Meanwhile, the Navy's ``home-basing'' initiative will keep sailors in Hampton Roads longer. That should help accelerate the already increasing rate of home ownership among sailors, Navy officials say. But it may be bad news for real-estate brokers who depend upon frequent military transfers to boost their listings and sales. 5.

The Navy will increasingly use credit cards and the Internet to buy goods and services.

As part of a government-wide trend that began several years, the Navy is already making about 80 percent of all purchases under $2,500 with credit cards. The goal is 90 percent by Sept. 30, and the purchase-price limit will likely increase, Navy officials said.

Increasingly, the card purchases aren't made by contract specialists but by end-users themselves, ashore and afloat. The Navy said that has dramatically cut the cost of buying small items.

Electronic commerce is another growing trend. The Fleet and Industrial Supply Center at the Norfolk Naval Station recently posted its first contract-solicitation - a 130-page posting for engineering services - on the Internet. It is only a matter of time, center officials said, before it begins awarding contracts electronically, too. 6.

Some of the Navy's largest construction projects in the next decade will be pier upgrades and replacements.

``A lot of stuff that's down here was built in World War II, and it needs fixing,'' said Rear Adm. Michael W. Shelton, commander of the Naval Facilities Engineering Command's Atlantic Division. He said some piers at the Norfolk Naval Station have had holes punched in them by massive cranes.

Some pier work is already funded, but Capt. Walter ``Len'' Dillinger, executive officer of the Navy Public Works Center, said Navy officials may need to press harder for more.

``We need, with as many piers as we have, to be doing about one a year, maybe even two a year,'' he said. ``We're currently looking at maybe one every three or four years. You can't get there from here.'' ILLUSTRATION: Gary C. Knapp/File Photo

Workers leave Metro Machine....

Graphics

Research by Dave Mayfield, Graphics by John Earle and Janet

Shaughnessy/The Virginian-Pilot

Shrinking Ranks

Active-Duty Navy Personnel

In Hampton Roads, as a percentage of Navy total

For complete copy, see microfilm

A smaller Fleet

Navy Ships

In Hampton Roads, as a percentage of Navy total

For complete copy, see microfilm